Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind

ABN Amro: Først falder væksten i Europa, og så kommer den lidt over normalen

Hugo Gaarden

torsdag 09. december 2021 kl. 12:11

Væksten i eurozonen er faldet kraftigt i dette kvartal, men den vil til gengæld stige lige så kraftigt i første kvartal næste år, skriver ABN Amro. For hele 2022 vil væksten ligge over trenden. Det er primært forbruget, der driver væksten, men så kommer der fra næste år store udbetalinger fra EUs gigantiske nye fond. Det vil føre til massive investeringer, især i den private sektor. Beskæftigelsen er kommet på niveau med situationen før pandemien. Inflationen er steget kraftigt til 4,9 pct. i november, men den ventes at falde allerede i første kvartal og komme ned på ECB’s målsætning på ca. 2 pct.

Uddrag fra ABN Amro:

Eurozone Outlook 2022 – Soft patch to be followed by above-trend growth

Economic growth in the eurozone has slowed markedly in the final months of 2021. Supply side bottlenecks and high (energy price) inflation are restraining growth in industrial production and also reducing consumers’ real disposable income, even as a new coronavirus wave is hitting the region.

Following this soft patch, growth is expected to go back above trend rates, supported by monetary and fiscal policy as well as a continued labour market recovery. Inflation is likely to fall back in the course of 2022, and should end up below the ECB target in 2023.

Following a sharp rebound in growth in 2021 Q2-Q3, the eurozone economy has entered a soft patch, which could persist for a couple of months. Although, the spread of the Omicron variant clearly is a downside risk to our growth outlook, we do not expect new contractions in GDP, as high vaccination rates will allow containment measures to be more moderate than during earlier waves of the pandemic.

We expect growth to return to above the trend rate during 2022Q1, and remain elevated throughout 2022. Indeed, there still is room for strong growth in consumption due to pent-up demand and a further recovery of the labour market, while growth will continue to be supported by fiscal and monetary policy.

Economic performance within the eurozone to converge

The level of eurozone GDP almost returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021Q3 (see graph). However, there were big differences among the largest member states. These growth differences can be explained by a large number of factors. Some related to the pandemic (e.g. spread of the virus and strictness of containment measures) and others to economic fundamentals (e.g. economic structure, competitiveness and flexibility of the labour market).

We expect the gaps between the various countries to narrow when the economic impact of the pandemic wanes, which we expect to happen in 2022-2023. Part of this economic convergence will be due to the distribution of funds from the European Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which will be skewed towards the countries that were hit hardest during the pandemic. For instance, Italy and Spain will receive relatively large amounts (equal to around 4% and 6% of GDP, respectively), whereas France will receive less than 2% and Germany and the Netherlands each less than 1%.

Graphs 1 2022 Eurozone Outlook

Private Consumption the main contributor to growth next year

Looking at the main components of GDP, private consumption growth bounced back sharply during Q2-Q3. Despite this rebound, the volume of consumption was still around 3% below pre-pandemic levels in Q3, while the savings rate was still well above pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that there is room for pent-up demand going forward.

However, monthly data for retail sales, new car registrations and Google Mobility data for visits to retail and recreation have indicated that consumption growth has slowed markedly in Q4. Consumer confidence fell in October and November, which was probably due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant in a number of member states, and the re-introduction of containment measures. On top of that, the ongoing rise in (energy price) inflation has reduced real disposable household income and has probably also reduced consumers’ propensity to carry out major purchases.

We think the current weakness in private consumption will dissipate during the course of next year, when inflation is expected to decline noticeably, while the labour market recovery should continue. Indeed, we expect private consumption growth to outpace total GDP growth in 2022 as a whole.

Investment supported by RRF

Although private consumption will be the biggest contributor to GDP growth in 2022-2023, fixed investment is also expected to grow robustly. Both private as well as government investment will receive extra support from the RRF funds.

According to the European Commission’s (EC) assessment of the RRF spending plans that had to be submitted by the member states, in total more than 0.5% of EZ GDP will be spent in each of 2022 and 2023. In terms of composition of expenditure, the biggest allocation of the RRF funding by 2023 will go to capital transfers (44%), predominantly supporting private investment, followed by general government investment (32%), while the remainder would finance current expenditure and other costs. Member states have allocated almost 40% of the spending in their plans to climate measures and more than 26% on the digital transition.

Graphs 2 2022 Eurozone Outlook

Labour market recovery faster than expected, but not yet complete

Thanks to the wide use of job retention schemes, the impact of the pandemic on household income has remained limited. Although these schemes might have created some frictions in the labour market, they have also reduced hiring and firing costs for companies. The overall adjustment of the eurozone labour market to the pandemic was smoother than expected.

The eurozone unemployment rate returned to the pre-pandemic level in September 2021, albeit with large differences between countries and economic sectors. Nevertheless, there remains slack in the labour market, with employment (in persons as well as in hours worked) and the labour market participation rate still below pre-pandemic levels in Q3. Meanwhile, growth in negotiated wages has slowed. We expect wage growth to pick up in 2022-2023, but to remain below the levels that would create upward cost pressure on inflation.

Inflation at record high levels

Inflation rose to 4.9% in November, up from 4.1% in October. The main driver of the rise in inflation since the start of the pandemic has been energy price inflation. On top of that, services inflation is currently being lifted by (base effects due to) the normalisation of prices related to hospitality, entertainment and travel after the end of lockdowns in the spring of this year. Finally, a rise non-energy industrial goods inflation is due to surging global industrial goods prices on the back of supply-chain bottlenecks and higher commodity prices.

Looking forward, recent producer price data as well as industry price expectation surveys indicate that the rise in non-energy industrial good inflation could continue for a while, but it should ease over time.

We expect inflation to fall sharply from the start of next year (also because the upward impact of changes in VAT rates will fall out of the series) and end up comfortably below 2% by the end of the year and in 2023. Energy price inflation seems to have peaked now, and should fall back in the course of next year.

Moreover, leisure and holiday-related inflation and hence services inflation is likely to ease, as we judge that the prices of these items have largely normalised. With inflation likely to fall back below target by the end of 2022, we expect the ECB to maintain an accommodative policy stance, something we go into more detail on in our Central banks and markets Outlook.

Table 2022 Eurozone Outlook


Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev om
Finans og Økonomi

Få de vigtigste finansnyheder direkte i indbakken. 
Det er gratis og udkommer tirsdag og torsdag kl. 9.00.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.
Del på facebook
Del på twitter
Del på linkedin
Del på email
Del på print



Nyt job
Private Banking rådgiver søges til Ringkjøbing Landbobank i Aarhus
Region Midt
Nyt job
Økonomikonsulent til tværgående anlægsstyring
Region Sjælland
Nyt job
Energinet søger økonom til projekter i den grønne omstilling
Region Syddanmark
Finanstilsynet søger Vicekontorchef til kapitalmarkedsanalyse
Region Hovedstaden
Head of Finance and Controlling til Kalundborg Refinery
Region Sjælland
Er business controlling i staten noget for dig?
Region Hovedstaden
Vil du arbejde med økonomisk rådgivning for nogle af Danmarks største virksomheder?
Region Hovedstaden
Projektkonsulent til forretningskritisk projekt i Udviklings- og Forenklingsstyrelsen
Region Hovedstaden
Grant Thornton søger revisor med minimum et par års erfaring
Region Hovedstaden
Topdanmark søger IT-udvikler med flair for økonomi til transformationsprogram
Region Hovedstaden
Grant Thornton Denmark søger erfaren revisor
Region Hovedstaden
Kalundborg kommune søger økonomimedarbejder med talent for præcision og udvikling (genopslag)
Region Sjælland
Møns Bank i Næstved søger erhvervsrådgiver – er det dig?
Region Sjælland
Plesner søger økonom til ambitiøs økonomisk analyseenhed
Region Hovedstaden
AC Birk søger Økonomichef med fokus på bæredygtig økonomi for vores 3 spændende forretningsenheder
Region Midtjylland
Kreditkonsulent søges til Danske Andelskassers Bank A/S
Region Midtjylland
Røde Kors søger en Blended Finance Advisor
Region Hovedstaden
Ringkøbing Landbobank søger Privatrådgiver til hovedkontoret i Ringkøbing
Region Midtjylland
Senior Director for Humanitarian Innovative Finance Hub
Region Hovedstaden
Sparekassen Kronjylland søger kvantitativ analytiker eller statistiker
Region Midtjylland
Forretningsorienteret controller til økonomistyring i Vejdirektoratet
Region Hovedstaden
Vil du være med til at udvikle vores ledelsesteam, og brænder du for ledelse?
Region Sjælland
Hans Knudsen Instituttet søger Senior Business Controller til økonomiafdeling
Region Hovedstaden
KPMG søger målrettede MidMarket-revisorer
Region Hovedstaden
Opsøgende privatrådgiver til Ringkjøbing Landbobank i Aarhus
Region Midtjylland
Spændende juridiske stillinger indenfor et område med stor politisk bevågenhed
Region Hovedstaden
Skattestyrelsen søger teamkoordinator til transfer pricing
Region Hovedstaden
Brænder du for at bidrage til den regnskabsmæssige understøttelse af staten
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Finans

Seneste nyt

Mest læste

Få dit daglige nyhedsoverblik i din indbakke

Seneste rapporter fra eksterne rådgivere

Dybdegående og original 
journalistik siden 1994

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i mere end 25 år leveret indsigtsfuld og dagsordensættende journalistik og analyser til læserne og den brede offentlighed. 

Vi tager ansvar for vores indhold og er tilmeldt:


Log ind


Salg: [email protected]
Jobannoncer: [email protected]
Redaktion: [email protected]
Annonce materialer: [email protected]
Bogholderi: [email protected]

Skriv til os på: [email protected]
Vi bestræber os på at besvare henvendelser indenfor 24 timer.
Telefonisk henvendelse: 70 23 40 10
Telefonerne er åbne alle hverdage fra: 10-15

Økonomisk Ugebrev A/S
CVR-nr.: 31760623
Forbindelsesvej 12, 2. tv
2100 København Ø

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.


Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs


Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank





Merril Lynch 

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker



Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet FED Watch Monitor Tool




Log ind

[esi iteras-paywall-login paywallid="qwerty123"]