Resume af teksten:
I starten af 2026 oplever det europæiske gasmarked store udsving som følge af vejrforskelle, finansielle handelsmønstre og global LNG-eksansion. Lave lagerniveauer og høje priser skaber alvorlige udfordringer, mens markedets frygt for forsyningsbegrænsninger understreges af rekorder i TTF-futureskurvernes backwardation. Europa planlægger dog at diversificere energikilder og genopbygge lagre for langsigtet stabilitet. I mellemtiden driver koldt vejr opvarmningsbehovet op og begynder at tære på lagrene, der forventes at komme under historiske niveauer ved vinterens afslutning. Europeiske Lagerbehov nødvendiggør rekordhøje LNG-importer for at genoprette beholdninger inden vinteren. På trods af global LNG-vækst på 9% i 2026, afhænger Europa stærkt af amerikansk LNG, hvilket medfører risici fra pris- og geopolitiske udsving. Investeringer i futures signalerer forskellige vurderinger af markedets retning, med usikkerhed forårsaget af politiske spændinger. Europa arbejder på at optimere sin energimix og styrke energisikkerhed, mens geopolitiske udfordringer og diversifikationsbestræbelser fortsætter.
Fra ABN-Amro:
The European gas market continues to experience sharp fluctuations in early 2026. These fluctuations reflect an ongoing transformation, shaped by weather volatility, evolving financial trading patterns, and the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Recent developments have underscored key challenges, including critically low storage levels and persistently high prices. A notable feature of the market in January has been the steep backwardation of TTF futures curves, where the spread between month-ahead and year-ahead contracts has reached record highs. This trend highlights traders’ acute concerns about near-term supply constraints and reflects the ongoing pressure from below-average storage levels. Despite these challenges, Europe’s commitment to diversifying its energy sources and rebuilding inventories demonstrates a clear focus on achieving long-term market stability and energy security. TTF month ahead contract is trading at 32.7 EUR/MWh at the time of writing.
Moutaz Altaghlibi
Senior Energy Economist
Critically low storage levels drive concerns about summer restocking and sustain high prices
A 9% global LNG supply increase in 2026 offers relief, but Europe’s reliance on US LNG deepens exposure to price and geopolitical risks
Cold weather and geopolitical tensions, like the Strait of Hormuz risks, amplify supply and price uncertainties
We retain our outlook for TTF to average 34 EUR/MWh in Q1 dipping to 26 EUR/MWh in summer before rising again in winter
Europe’s gas market has entered 2026 with heightened concerns over supply and storage levels. Cold weather outbreaks across Europe have intensified heating demand, leading to rapid storage withdrawals. Inventories in the ‘Europe Perimeter’ are projected to end winter at just 22%, significantly below historical norms and 11% lower than the five-year average. This storage deficit is fuelling concerns about summer restocking challenges, with record LNG inflows required during the injection season to rebuild stocks ahead of winter.
TTF prices reached 41 EUR/MWh level for the month ahead contract, with larger increases for contracts from June to October 2026. Seasonal spreads between summer 2026 and winter 2026-27 slipped slightly, but the gap between winter 2026-27 and summer 2027 widened to 5.49 EUR/MWh, highlighting concerns about long-term supply-demand imbalances.
At the same time, global LNG supply is expanding, with a 9% growth expected in 2026, driven by new liquefaction capacity from key projects such as Golden Pass in the US and Qatar’s North Field East. Europe’s reliance on US LNG deepens its exposure to global supply and price movements, as US LNG made up 58% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025—a figure likely to rise further this year.
Investment funds increased net long positions in TTF futures and options during January (see right graph below), driven by the sharpest reduction in short bets since early April 2021. Meanwhile, investment firms and credit institutions elevated their net short exposure to an all-time high, reflecting bearish sentiment among certain traders. Seasonal spreads for TTF widened slightly between summer and winter contracts, as winter prices expanded more than summer prices.
Several critical factors continue to shape the dynamics of the European gas market. First, European inventories are projected to end winter at multi-year lows, driving concerns about summer restocking during the injection season. Seasonal spreads are likely to sustain elevated prices, with record LNG inflows needed to rebuild stocks. Second, the addition of 33 million metric tons of new liquefaction capacity in 2026 promises to reshape trade flows and reduce upward pressure on prices. However, delays in ramp-up or maintenance schedules could impact supply availability. Additionally, colder-than-average temperatures in parts of Europe, including Germany and the Netherlands, are sustaining high heating demand and amplifying supply concerns. Milder conditions in other regions, such as France, Italy, and Spain, may moderate overall consumption. Furthermore, the recent shifts in trading positions and open interest across TTF futures and options reflect market uncertainty and speculative bets on price movements. The steep backwardation of TTF futures curves underscores traders’ concerns about near-term supply constraints. These concerns could be further deepen by further geopolitical escalations, especially those concerning the war on Iran or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which would affect almost 20% of the world LNG trade. Finally, Europe’s growing reliance on US LNG highlights the interconnected nature of global gas markets. High prices in Europe continue to incentivize US LNG cargoes, with netbacks favouring shipments to the continent over Asia.
The European gas market faces a challenging yet transformative year in 2026, shaped by storage deficits, global supply growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, cold weather and depleted inventories will continue to drive price fluctuations in the immediate term. Europe’s reliance on US LNG amplifies risks of supply disruptions during extreme weather events. Furthermore, record LNG inflows will be required to rebuild storage inventories during the summer injection season. Seasonal spreads and high demand may sustain elevated prices in the medium term. On the bright side, the anticipated global LNG supply surplus in 2026 offers a prospect for price stabilization and improved trade flows. Europe’s ability to optimize its supply mix and diversify sources will be critical in achieving energy security. But still Europe must navigate complex geopolitical dynamics, including tensions with Russia and trade negotiations with the US, while maintaining its commitment to energy independence and diversification which will affect the outlook in the coming period. Accordingly we retain our forecast for TTF prices with an average of 34 EUR/MWh in Q1. Given the available information, we see the price reaching 26 EUR/MWh in the summer before rising again as we enter the heating season. Our outlook for 2026 is summarized in the table below.
Moutaz Altaghlibi
Senior Energy Economist
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