Resume af teksten:
Den globale erhvervstillid i fremstillingssektoren (PMI) forblev stabil i maj på 52,6, hvilket er det højeste siden marts 2022. Indekset viser forskelle mellem udviklede økonomier (53,9) og emerging markets (51,6). Forsyningssiden klarede sig bedre end efterspørgselssiden i maj. Forstyrrelser har ført til længere leveringstider og pres på leveringskæderne, drevet af Iran-konflikten. USA og Taiwan oplevede stærke stigninger i PMI, mens eurozonen faldt tilbage til 51,6. Korrigeret for leveringstider ville eurozonens PMI have været i kontraktion. Kina oplevede et fald i PMI, mens Indien og Sydkorea viste stigninger. Omkostningspres fra industrien stiger, særligt i eurozonen og Storbritannien.
Fra ABN-Amro:
Global manufacturing PMI for May steady at four-year high. However, we see more divergence between countries/regions. The supply side held up better than the demand side in May. Disturbances drive our global supply bottlenecks index further into ‘excess demand’ territory. Cost price pressures from global industry are on the rise.
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
The global manufacturing PMI was stable at 52.6 in May, staying at the highest reading since March 2022 and remaining in expansion mode for the tenth month in a row. This stability was visible in the aggregates for both developed economies (DMs) and emerging economies (EMs), which were steady at 53.9 (DMs) and 51.6 (EMs) respectively. The fact that this index remains quite strong despite the Iran conflict seems to reflect several factors such as the ongoing tech/AI boom, but also stockpiling/ frontloading related to the Iran conflict as producers fear shortages and higher prices. What is more, the headline PMIs are also being flattered by lengthening delivery times, which points to a rise in global supply bottlenecks stemming from the Iran conflict. When correcting for the delivery times’ subcomponent, the global manufacturing PMI would have been 0.3 points lower, at 52.3.
Within the DM category, there was a remarkable divergence between individual countries/ regions. Both manufacturing PMIs for the US rose to relatively high levels (S&P Global 55.1, ISM 54.0). This seems partly backed by an ongoing tech/AI boom, with the manufacturing PMI for Taiwan, for instance, jumping to 56.1. Japan’s index also remained high at 54.5, while the UK’s index rose to its strongest reading since May 2022 (53.9). By contrast, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 51.6 (April: 52.2), with the index for France and Germany down by 3.1 and 1.3 points (to 49.7 and 50.1), respectively. In fact, when corrected for the long delivery times, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI would have been 1.8 points lower, and would already have fallen to contraction territory (49.8) in May, see chart. Meanwhile, the Netherlands (see here ) remained a positive outlier within the eurozone, with the Dutch index jumping by 1.5 points to a four-year high of 55.9 (54.6 when corrected for delivery times).
Amongst EMs, China’s index from RatingDog – included in the EM aggregate – dropped to 51.8 (April: 52.2), but remained well in expansion territory – and above China’s official PMI, which fell back to the 50 mark. This was offset by stronger PMIs for other EMs, for instance for India (up 0.3 points, to 55.0) and South Korea (up 1.2 points, to 54.8).
A look at the various subcomponents of the global manufacturing PMI shows that the supply side held up better than the demand side in May. On the supply side, the global output component picked up slightly, to 53.5 (April: 53.4), the highest reading since July 2021. On the demand side, the global new orders component fell back by 0.4 points (led by DMs), although at 52.8 remains well in expansion territory. The global export sub-index fell by 0.6 points to 49.6, returning to contraction territory for the first time since the Iran conflict started end-February. The global stocks of purchases index rose by almost a full point to 51.4, the highest reading since August 2022, pointing to a further increase in stockbuilding. And the global delivery times component was stable at a post-pandemic low of 44.9, but with the DM aggregate dropping further to 39.7, the lowest reading since July 2022 (lower readings point to longer delivery times). Currently, the delivery times sub-index is the lowest for the Netherlands (34.9), the UK (36.9), Japan (37.1), Germany (37.8), and the eurozone aggregate (37.9), although for most of these countries/regions (except Japan) the troughs reached during the pandemic are not in sight yet.
As mentioned above, supply conditions held up better than demand conditions in May. This is also visible in the supply-demand ingredient (ratio between EM output and DM domestic/export orders) included in our global supply bottlenecks index. Nevertheless, our index rose further into ‘excess demand territory’ in May, being now at the highest level in four years. This further pick-up is entirely driven by the supply disturbances measures included in our index. This is led by the delivery times subindices for the DM manufacturing PMI (see above) and for the global PMI for electronics equipment. To a lesser extent, also the global container tariff benchmark and the Baltic Dry index play a role in this, as these indicators have also shown a clear pick-up in recent months.
As already flagged in our previous publications (see here for instance), the strength in the global tech cycle coupled with the rising disturbances stemming from the Iran conflict is going hand in hand with rising cost push pressures from the industrial goods side. The global manufacturing PMI subindices for input and output prices have been picking up since Q4-2025, and are now at the highest levels since July 2022 (although remaining clearly below the heights seen during the pandemic, and with the output price component stabilising in May). It should be noted that the increase in these cost price components following the Iran conflict is broad-based among different countries/regions, and stronger for the eurozone and the UK than for the US (where these components were already relatively high before the conflict broke out). That said, the pick-up in these components is more an illustration of the breadth of price rises captured by PMI surveys, rather than a precise measure of their magnitude. Note that we have raised our inflation forecasts for all economies that we are covering, but we do not expect a similar inflation surge like the one we have seen following the 2022 energy crisis – also see our May Global Monthly and our coverage of eurozone and Dutch inflation in May here .
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
