ABN Amro vurderer, at inflationen er toppet i USA, og at den vil toppe senere på året i eurozonen. Banken mener ikke, at Delta-varianten vil standse den igangværende genopretning af økonomien. Dog ventes Delta at få en større, negativ virkning i Kina.
Global Monthly – Inflation: how big is the risk?
- The spread of Delta is reawakening worries about global growth. However, slowing growth was to be expected after the initial reopening boom, and we do not see Delta derailing the global recovery Meanwhile, inflation fears persist, and the risks remain elevated, despite a recent cooling in the US
- Indeed, we think inflation has probably peaked in the US, and will peak in the eurozone later this year. But the risk of more persistent inflation is nonetheless higher across the Atlantic
- Regional updates: in the eurozone, and the Netherlands, Q2 GDP growth surprised to the upside. While momentum has probably peaked, we expect growth to remain strong in H2 2021
- In the US, falling goods consumption and stalling services are weighing on near-term growth
- Delta is having a more meaningful impact on China, where growth risks look tilted to the downside
210823-Global-Monthly-Inflation-How-big-is-the-risk.pdf (356 KB)
