Europa står over for et kolossalt investeringsbehov i energisektoren. Investeringerne i energiforsyningen må fordobles i forhold til det forrige årti. Det er et investeringsbehov på 56 milliarder euro. Investeringer i elnettet skal mere end tredobles til 44 milliarder euro. Ellers når EU-landene ikke at blive CO2-neutrale. Banklån bliver den største investeringskilde, mens det kniber meget med grønne obligationer, vurderer ABN-Amro.
How much investment is required for the EU’s energy transition?
Investments in both energy supply and energy demand need to more than double compared to the past decade.
Of this additional investment, EUR 56bn is related to energy supply. Investment in power grids needs to more than triple, going from EUR 13bn in the previous decade to EUR 44bn in the next decade to be consistent with a Net Zero scenario.
Investment in power plants needs to increase from EUR 32bn to EUR 55bn.
On the demand side, investments in all categories (industry, residential, and tertiary) should more than double. The largest additional investment need in absolute terms is created in the residential sector (mainly residential heating), with investment requirements increasing from EUR 88bn in the previous decade, to an annual EUR180bn in the coming decade.
Additional investment need for a 55% GHG reduction in 2030 amounts to about 2% of the EU’s GDP
Investment in both energy supply and demand should more than double compared to the previous
decade
Investment requirements are frontloaded but also remain large for an extended period
Bank loans will likely remain dominant in financing, but bonds are becoming increasingly important
Over the last year, bond issuance trends suggest that green investment is stepping up but there is
still quite some way to go
The EU has the objective to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, compared to 1990, on its way to reach the climate neutrality (Net Zero) end goal in 2050. More efficient and better insulated buildings, a shift to electric cars, continued rapid penetration of renewable energy in all sectors are needed to achieve the transition towards climate neutrality.
This requires significant investments in new technologies and infrastructure. In this note we review estimates of investment needs on the EU level and go on to assess how it might be financed.
Additional investment necessary for -55% GHG reduction in 2030 is about 2% of the EU’s GDP
For the EU, the European Commission estimates that reaching the 2030 climate target will require additional annual
investments of EUR 390 billion on average (the EC has modelled different scenarios and this is the number for the so-called MIX scenario, which is the central scenario in which a combination of expanded carbon pricing and increased regulation leads to a 55% emissions reduction by 2030).
This should see relevant investments rising from an average of EUR 660 billion per year (5.4% of GDP) in the last decade to around EUR 1,050 billion per year (7.6% of GDP).
Of those numbers, the investment need for the transport sector makes up a large part in absolute terms, but this includes vehicle replacement and is therefore not directly related to decarbonisation costs. Excluding transport, the total financing requirement increases from EUR185bn (1.5% of GDP) in the past decade to EUR 400bn (2.9% of GDP) in the coming decade.
