ABN Amro har analyseret den europæiske job-udvikling og konstaterer, at selv om der er sket et fald i arbejdsløsheden i første kvartal, så er den fulde beskæftigelse faldet næsten dobbelt så meget. Det kan betyde, at en stor del af de personer, der er blevet afskediget som følge af pandemien, slet ikke kommer tilbage på jobbet. Det er en tendens, mange har peget på. Især i de store lande Tyskland og Frankrig er såkaldte korttidsjobs blevet brugt for at sikre lønmodtagerne. Staten betaler hovedparten af medarbejdernes løn, så ramte virksomheder ikke behøver at fyre dem. I f.eks. hoteller og restauranter har korttidsjobs udgjort over 70 pct. under pandemien. Men det er i høj grad i disse brancher, at det kan knibe med at genansatte alle i regulære jobs. Pandemien kan altså få langvarige, negative virkninger.
Why Eurozone unemployment is higher than it looks
Euro Macro: Eurozone labour market distortions remain –
Eurostat published its second estimate for Q1 GDP yesterday, as well as the first estimate for employment during that same quarter. GDP growth was unchanged from the first estimate of -0.6% qoq, while the change in employment was reported at -0.3% qoq.
The changes in employment and GDP fit well into the historical relationship between employment and economic activity. Indeed, labour productivity declined modestly in Q1, which usually happens when GDP contracts as the labour market tends to react to changes in economic activity with a delay.
However, in contrast to the normal historical pattern, the decline in employment went hand in hand with a decline in unemployment. Indeed the number of employed fell by 475 thousand qoq in Q1 while the number of unemployed fell by 257 thousand. This implies that labour market participation fell considerably during the first few months of the year.
This drop in participation will probably be reversed in the coming quarters, implying that employment and unemployment could each rise, similar to what happened in 2020Q3.
Eurozone employment and unemployment
1000s qoq
Source: Eurostat, Refinitiv, ABN Amro Group Economics
Another sign of distortions in the labour market is that companies still make wide use of government subsidised short-time work schemes (STW). Government subsidised STW is designed to allow companies to temporarily reduce the number of working hours of employees (often to zero) while keeping them on the payroll.
In Germany 2.7 million people were in STW in March, down from 2.9 million in February. As a percentage of employed people the share declined to 8.0% in March, down from 8.7% in February. In France 2.3 million people were in STW in March, up from 2.2 million in February. As a share of employees it increased from 11% in February to 12% in March.
As can be expected the majority of people in STW can be found in the services industry. For instance, in Germany more than 50% of employees in hotels and restaurants are in STW and in France even 77%. In Germany’s industry STW use was still was 6.3% in March (down from 7.1% in February).
Although the majority of the people in STW should return to their normal jobs when the STW schemes are unwound, the wide use of the schemes in sectors that are have not been hindered by lockdowns since the first half of 2020, suggests that a proportion of the people in STW will become unemployed.
People in STW, % employees
Source: Ifo Institute, Dares
