Coronakrisen bider sig fast. Der kommer ingen forbedring før i 2021, forudser ABN Amro. Nedturen bliver langt værre end ventet for bare 14 dage siden, og Europa og USA får sværere ved at komme op igen end Kina.
Uddrag af ABN Amro:
Post-crisis recovery not until 2021
Since the coronavirus made landfall outside China and escalated at breakneck speed into a pandemic, draconian government measures to halt social (and hence economic) life and to stem the spread of the disease have followed in rapid succession. The ‘recession territory’ we referred to as a possibility on 4 March has meanwhile worsened into a deeper worldwide recession with a less favourable recovery outlook. We have thus reached the next phase in the escalation diagram sketched below.
Due to this escalation, we have revised down our growth outlook for the biggest economies (see also table at back).
Economic impact
Governments in the eurozone and the US will scale up their measures to a similar extent as the virus continues to spread. The nature and timing of the measures will differ from country to country, but all will put an unprecedented drag on economic activity. The varying degrees of lockdown are shown in the figure below. Regarding the Dutch economy, we can make more specific assumptions based on the following government strategies to stem the virus and their respective impacts on the various sectors. These will be published next week.
A final word
The economic impact of the coronavirus crisis is unprecedented and the effects will not have disappeared after the second quarter. We foresee an initial revival in the third quarter, followed by a pullback in the fourth quarter due to second-order effects. All in all, a strong recovery of the global economy is not on the cards until 2021
