Finans

ABN Amro: Metalpriserne vil stige i 2021

Hugo Gaarden

onsdag 13. januar 2021 kl. 12:11

ABN Amro vurderer, at metalpriserne vil stige i 2021 efter et dårligt 2020, fordi der globalt kommer mere gang i økonomien. Der er voksende efterspørgsel efter stål, og udbuddet er beskedent. Kobberprisen ventes kun at stige svagt, mens der ventes langt bedre priser på nickel på grund af den kraftige vækst i el-bilproduktionen.

Uddrag fra ABN Amro:

Support for metal prices in 2021

 

The corona crisis had a major impact on the metal sector in 2020. Demand for industrial metals weakened abruptly, while a supply response only started late. This resulted in higher inventories. Fortunately, this did not turn into a millstone for the sector.

After all, the resilience of the industrial activity proved to be high. Today, we see that the global recovery is becoming more and more widely supported. The economic recovery is gaining strength, demand for metals is increasing and sentiment about industrial metal markets is optimistic. Under these circumstances, metals prices will continue to rise in 2021.

  • Higher steel prices due to demand recovery, higher input costs and supply constraints
  • Iron ore price remains relatively high and Australian coking coal price is rebounding
  • Base metal prices follow the economic cycle closely

Steel: stronger metal demand and lower supply drives up prices

Demand for steel-intensive consumer goods – such as cars and white goods – is currently strong in several markets. Market sentiment is good and activity is improving better than expected. In particular, car sales in China have increased very strongly in the last five months of 2020. Demand recovery in Europe and the US is somewhat slower but on the way back. Many end users of steel are restocking more intensively. As a result, supply is struggling to keep up with the rapid recovery in demand. Price increases are the result. The increased costs of making steel – mainly due to the higher prices of iron ore and scrap metal – also contribute to higher steel prices. Next year, steel prices will remain relatively high.

Iron ore: price remains relatively high this year

The strong Chinese demand for and limited supply of iron ore was the reason for the rising iron ore price. China’s steel production grew strongly in recent months and iron ore stocks decreased. In addition, both Australia and Brazil were struggling to meet the stronger growth in demand, mainly due to the influence of extreme weather (heavy rainfall and tropical storms). Demand for good quality iron ore remains high worldwide. Price risks come mainly from the supply side. In any case, the current high price is an invitation for metal mining companies to produce more. A recovery in supply will bring a reduction in price in the course of the year. But on balance, the price of iron ore remains relatively high this year.

Coking coal: price recovery on the horizon

The Chinese import restrictions on coking coal from Australia are causing a persistently low Australian price of coking coal. Demand for Australian coking coal from India, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam is increasing, but does not cause a reversal in the price trend. On balance, the supply of coking coal from outside Australia (such as Russia, Mongolia and China) is tight. This means that existing trade flows are subject to change. For example, China is buying more coking coal from Canada. Despite the fact that the weather phenomenon La Nina will weaken further in the coming weeks, heavy rainfall is still expected. This will put pressure on the supply from Australia and will result in a higher price. The increasing global demand for coking coal due to recovery in the steel sector will also contribute to price recovery.

Aluminium: price will maintain its relatively high level in 2021

China is normally a net exporter of aluminium and imports are almost insignificant. In 2020 this picture tilted. Due to strong domestic demand for aluminium, export volumes decreased and aluminium imports increased sharply. The Chinese rebound in demand is mainly due to strong catch-up demand from the automotive sector and targeted Chinese economic support packages in the construction sector. Demand also recovered in Europe, the US and Japan. The price passed the USD 2,000/t. The order books for aluminium sheets are solidly filled for the first quarter of 2021. It keeps this year’s prices relatively high. A downward price risk is in the air when Chinese stimulus spending stops. Then China becomes a net exporter of the metal again.

Copper: price rises in 2021 but in a lower gear

The copper price breaks record after record. At the end of 2020 the peak of June 2018 was settled and in the first few days of 2021 the price is heading towards the peaks of 2012 and 2013. The list that gives reason to higher prices is long. The weaker dollar, a shortage of copper, the global economic recovery, the start of vaccination, the continued growth of Chinese industrial activity and supply constraints from Chilean mines. It gives a lot of confidence. As a result, total long positions are high, but this brings a downside price risk at the same time. The likelihood of profit-taking by speculators is then greater. In 2020, the market has taken a substantial advance on the good news of 2021. The price of the metal will rise further in 2021, but in a lower gear.

Nickel: expectations around electric car keeps price high

The new year is still short, but the nickel price has risen already by about 8%. And that while the market is in surplus. Optimism is widely supported in the nickel market. Much is due to the expectation of sustained long-term demand from the battery sector. This is fuelled by a further increase in sales of electric cars. This will accelerate in the coming period. In order to revitalize economic growth in the post-Covid-19 era and also reduce CO2 emissions, many governments around the world are unveiling green incentives. As a result, the price will remain relatively high. However, the stainless steel sector has been hit hard by the Covid-19 crisis with sharp declines in metal production. A strong recovery in the short term on a global base is unlikely.

Zinc: despite a surplus in 2021, the price may still rise slightly.

The zinc market was oversupplied in 2020 and stocks increased at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Nevertheless, the price rose significantly in 2020. The positive macro-economic narrative was more the guideline for prices than the reports on the negative supply and demand balance and high inventories. Demand for zinc fell sharply in 2020 as a result of car plant closures. Demand also fell sharply in the construction industry – where a lot of galvanized steel is processed. However, global activity in both sectors will pick up again in 2021. This is a positive trend for the demand for zinc. A surplus of the metal is still on the agenda for 2021, but this is expected to be relatively low. The price of zinc will continue to rise in 2021, but at a slower pace.

Del på facebook
Del på twitter
Del på linkedin
Del på email
Del på print

[postviewcount]

Relaterede nyheder

Finans

PKA og PFA hemmeligholder afkast på verdens største vindmøllepark

Åbenheden og gennemsigtigheden er på retur i pensionsbranchen, der ellers i de seneste 20 år har arbejdet hårdt på at oplyse stadigt mere om ordninger og af­kastet på dem….
Finans
Børsprofessor: Certified Advisors på First North bør godkendes af Finanstilsynet
Samfundsansvar
ØU’s Klimabarometer: Det danske samfund i solid fremgang på klimahensyn
Finans
Bankekspert: Bankerne overkapitaliserede, ”sparer op” til kæmpeudbytter næste år
Samfundsansvar
Globale ESG-tendenser 2021: Fokus på virksomheders ESG risici og modstandsdygtighed overfor klimarisici, samt ESG effekter på obligationsmarkedet
Samfundsansvar
A.P. Møller Holding øjner gennembrud for grønne børsnoteringer
Aktieugebrevet Invest Logo
Formue
Investeringsfonden AktieUgebrevet Invest gav et afkast på 32 % i 2020
Formue
Norwegian afslører detaljer i redningsplan: Her er vores opdaterede kursmål
Samfundsansvar
AkademikerPension hæver barren for aktivt ejerskab
Formue
Bullish eksperter? Derfor får vi ikke et januar rally i år
Formue
Analytikerne udpeger her 43 danske udbytte-aktier i 2021
Finans
Venture: Nyt marked for salg af ejerandele med kæmperabat
Samfundsansvar
Sasja Beslik: Danske virksomheder langt fra Parisaftalens klimamål
Ledelse
Mærsk går enegang, udskyder grøn flådefornyelse og satser på cash flow
Finans
First North-rådgivere: De har haft succes, og de har haft fiasko

Seneste nyt

Samfundsansvar
Globale ESG-tendenser 2021: Investorenes dilemma, incitamentsordninger og nye EU-regler
Samfundsansvar
EU Sustainable Finance truer den danske ledelsesmodel
Samfundsansvar
Store forskelle i landes tilgang til grøn finanspolitik
Ledelse
Trends 2021: Danske Largecap lagde i 2020 byggeklodser til nye strategier
Formue

ØU Trader: Økonomisk Ugebrevs Portefølje slutter 2020 med +44%, 7%-point bedre end markedet

Økonomisk Ugebrevs Portefølje slutter 2020 med et afkast på 44 % – mod  afkastet i Copenhagen Benchmark på 36,9%. Altså godt syv procentpoint bedre end benchmark. Ca. 70 procent…

Aktuel artikelserie

KlimaBarometer for Dansk Økonomi

KlimaBarometeret er en konjunkturindikator, der følger bæredygtige udvikling i Danmark. Barometeret viser udviklingen på baggrund af tre underliggende indikatorer: 1: Bæredygtig Forbrugeradfærd, 2: Den Grønne Energiomstilling og 3: Investeringer i Klima og Miljø. Barometeret sammenlignes

Andre artikelserier

KlimaBarometer for Dansk Økonomi
ESG analyser
Sustainable Finance
Samfundsansvar
Pensionsselskaber har milliarder investeret i globale selskaber, som ignorerer klima
Finans
Rating: Her er vinderne blandt de 100 største unoterede selskaber
Ledelse
Erhvervslivets resultatskabere: Topchefer, vi lagde mærke til
Ledelse
MT Højgaard næsten i mål med turn around: Problemprojekter tæt på afviklet
Formue
Waturu ejere forsøger ny børsnotering, denne gang i Norge
Finans
Engelsk crowdfunding-platform på vej med seks danske startups
Ledelse
NYTÅRSBREV FRA CHEFREDAKTØREN: Vi skærper profilen og tilpasser os ny omverden
Samfundsansvar
Exxon offentliggør scope 3-emissioner for første gang
Ledelse
Få gratis adgang til Bestyrelsesguiden med 700 artikler om Praktisk Bestyrelsesarbejde
Formue
Langers Skarpe: Sådan gik det mine fem vinderaktier 2020, udpeget primo januar 2020
Ledelse
2021: Her er årets Temaer, Surveys og Kortlægninger i Økonomisk Ugebrev Ledelse
Finans
Temaer 2021: Her er årets temaer og brancheanalyser i ØU Finans
Samfundsansvar
2020 blev rekordår for bæredygtige fonde
Finans
Provinsbanker i fusionsspillet fik aktieplusser i 2020, stort set resten dykkede

Seneste nyt

Finans
Tema: Store skadesforsikrings selskaber smadrer de fleste mindre selskaber
Finans
Bagmænd bag store forsikringskonkurser i gang med nyt forsikringseventyr

Mest læste

Få dit daglige nyhedsoverblik i din indbakke

Seneste rapporter fra eksterne rådgivere

Hvordan skal erhvervsejendomme vurderes i fremtiden?
Fødevarestyrelsen påbegynder udbetalinger til minkavlerne – her er vores guide i forbindelse med den påbegyndende udbetaling
Ny normalvedtægt for ejerforeninger
Dybdegående og original 
journalistik siden 1994

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i mere end 25 år leveret indsigtsfuld og dagsordensættende journalistik og analyser til læserne og den brede offentlighed. 

Vi tager ansvar for vores indhold og er tilmeldt:

KONTAKT

Telefonisk henvendelse: 70 23 40 10
Telefonerne er åbne alle hverdage fra: 10-15

Skriv til os på: [email protected]
Vi bestræber os på at besvare henvendelser indenfor 24 timer.

Økonomisk Ugebrev A/S
CVR-nr.: 31760623
Sundkaj 125, 3. sal
Nordhavn 2150

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank

 

Log ind

[iteras-paywall-login paywallid="qwerty123"]
X