ABN Amro har analyseret den kraftigt voksende statsgæld under coronaen. Banken kommer til den konklusion, at en stor gæld ikke har samme betydning som tidligere, fordi renterne er ekstremt små, og så skyldes gælden, at staterne har pumpet penge i kredsløb for at bevare væksten under pandemien. Gælden aftager i de kommende år, men der vil fortsat være store offentlige investeringer, som vil stimulere væksten og dermed lette gældsbyrden.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Does debt still matter?
Why historically high public debt is not a problem this time
Government debt in major advanced economies has soared over the last year, reflecting the largest fiscal support measures we have ever seen, and sharp contractions in economic activity. In our latest flagship publication, we assess the outlook for public finances over the coming years, with a focus on the consequences for credit worthiness on the one hand, and future economic prosperity on the other. Our scope is the largest six eurozone economies, the US and the UK.
210728-Does-debt-still-matter-6.pdf (2 MB)
Debt burden will decrease and remain affordable
For most countries, the government debt ratio looks set to peak this year and gradually decline in the coming years, albeit ending above pre-pandemic levels. The exceptions to this trend are the US, France and Belgium, where an upward trend is likely to continue, but even in these countries the rise is relatively moderate. This relatively benign picture reflects that a lot of the fiscal
measures are temporary in nature, while economic growth is expected to recover strongly. Meanwhile, debt service burdens are expected to remain low, assuming a gradual normalisation of interest rates. So even though debt will remain relatively high, governments’ payment capacity will likely remain strong.
Debt is not an obstacle to future growth
Although governments are unlikely to experience difficulty in servicing a high debt stock, a case has been made by studies that higher debt levels weigh on economic growth over time. We think this time really is different. It is difficult to argue that government measures have crowded out the private sector. To the contrary, compared to the counterfactual of no government support, there will be considerably less long-term economic scarring. Crisis periods aside, there is clear evidence that public investment can boost an economy’s growth potential. Looking across the selected major advanced economies, public investment will likely be stepped up significantly in the coming years, with the exceptions of Germany, France and Belgium. In particular, a public
investment boom is on the cards in Italy, which could revolutionise its growth performance.
Debt has prevented a lot of misery, and thus promoted growth
Overall, in the current circumstances, high debt levels are not a concern and actually will be a force for good in the sense that they will likely lead to better economic outcomes than if
governments would be frugal. Sharply higher interest rates could of course change this picture. However, equilibrium rates have fallen over recent years. There is a caveat here. If inflation rises by more than expected, central bank policy rates will need to go well-above normal levels to slow the economy and get inflation back down. Having said that, debt service costs are impacted
significantly only if the rise in interest rates lasts for many years, as the average maturity of debt is long. So we would need to see a large, durable and stubborn rise in inflation for interest rates to remain high enough for long enough to lead to a problematic rise in debt service costs.
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