ABN Amro hæfter sig ved, at det kinesiske indeks for servicesektoren steg overraskende kraftigt i september, mens der er en afmatning i industriindeksene, især på grund af en reduktion i energiforbruget samt krisen i ejendomssektoren. Det indikerer, at den økonomiske vækst får det lidt bedre på kort sigt. Men ABN Amro hælder dog til den opfattelse, at væksten bliver lavere end ventet i det nye år. Banken vurderer væksten til 8,3 pct. i år og 5,5 pct. næste år, men vil altså ikke udelukke, at den bliver lavere i 2022.
China’s growth turns up despite manufacturing slowdown
China Macro: Services PMI bounces back sharply
China’s official PMIs and Caixin’s manufacturing PMI for September are published. The official non-manufacturing (services) PMI for September showed a sharp rebound, to 53.2 (August: 47.5, consensus: 49.8). This index is now almost back to the level it reached in July.
The sharp drop in August (by around six points) was driven by Beijing’s zero tolerance policy versus Delta outbreaks, leading to regional lockdowns and renewed mobility restrictions in a peak travel season. This policy – directed at eliminating all cases – had clearly left its mark on economic activity, particularly in services sectors such as transport and catering. While the rebound was stronger than consensus expectations, it was in line with the type of rebound that we had envisaged on reopenings (also see our previous analysis here).
Manufacturing faced with several headwinds
Meanwhile, the two manufacturing PMIs published showed a rather mixed picture. The official PMI published by NBS (which has a stronger coverage of large state-owned firms) dropped by 0.5 point to 49.6 (consensus 50.0), the first reading below the neutral 50 mark since the initial covid-19 shock in February 2020. By contrast, Caixin’s manufacturing PMI (with a stronger focus on smaller, private, export-oriented firms) rose back by 0.8 points to the neutral 50 mark (consensus: 49.5).
With the official PMI more strongly correlated with industrial production, we view its drop to contraction territory as a clear confirmation of rising headwinds to the manufacturing sector. These headwinds range from an energy crunch stemming from environmental regulations (hitting heavy industry in particular), a further cooling of the real estate market (exacerbated by spillovers from the Evergrande crisis), and supply side bottlenecks – with for instance a scarcity in semiconductors hitting car production.
This explains why – after having cut our 2021 growth forecast to 8.3%,while maintaining our 2022 growth forecast at 5.5% – we continue to see risks to our China growth forecasts tilted to the downside.
