Resume af teksten:
I denne uge forventes det, at den amerikanske centralbank vil reducere renten med 25 basispunkter, set som en justering på baggrund af ændrede risici. Meningsforskelle blandt medlemmerne er forventede, og forventningerne til årets slutrente forbliver uændret. Detailhandelstal og importpriser vil blive afventet tidligere på ugen. I Storbritannien forventes inflationen at forblive høj, mens renten sandsynligvis fastholdes, og der er risiko for, at mål for kvantitativ lempelse kan blive reduceret. I Holland vil budgetfremlæggelsen for 2026 være præget af begrænsede politiske ændringer, men kan indeholde tiltag for øget købekraft. Arbejdsmarkedet forventes at forblive stærkt. I Kina ventes data at vise svag investeringstilvækst, mens BNP-væksten forventes at aftage i sidste halvdel af 2025. Bank of Japan forventes at fastholde sin rente, men planlægger gradvise forhøjelser senere.
Fra ABN-Amro:
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
United States – The Fed is set to reduce the policy rate by 25bps this week, in line with consensus expectations and market pricing. We think the rate cut will be communicated as a recalibration on the back of evolving risks, and to keep the Fed better positioned to respond to changes in the outlook. There will again be dissents, likely in both directions. There will also be a new round of projections and a new dot plot. We again expect two camps, with roughly half the participants putting in no cuts this year and the other half expecting two cuts this year. Due to Bowman, Waller and Miran likely pencilling in more than two more cuts, we expect the median dot to come in at 3.875%, same as June, implying two cuts total for the year. We do expect the median dot for end of 2026 to shift down to 3.375, 25bps lower than June.
Earlier in the week we get retail sales and import prices, two important gauges for demand and tariff pass-through. We expect retail sales to hold up reasonably well, with headline at 0.2% and the control group at 0.3% m/m.
UK – CPI inflation is expected to stay elevated, driven by higher food inflation and sticky services inflation. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold. Markets will also be watching for whether the Bank changes its annual QT target of GBP100bn. We see a high risk that the QT target is lowered, with the Bank perhaps reverting to (partial) passive roll-off that is typical at other central banks. A move to full passive roll-off would imply a halving in the QT pace to GBP49bn.
The Netherlands – Upcoming Tuesday is Prinsjesdag (Dutch budget day) where the budget for 2026 will be presented. In line with the caretaker status of the government, it will be ‘policy light’, meaning that no new policies or large changes are forthcoming. Considering the elections, the cabinet might announce some additional purchasing power measures to sway voters. We therefore expect only small policy tweaks and some additional purchasing power measures, such as the extension of the reduced fuel levies. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.9% for August, a marginal rise from 3.8% in July. The labour market remains strong. After ticking up slightly at the end of 2024, unemployment has been roughly stable at 3.8% in the year to date and is set to creep only a little higher, to average 3.9% in 2025, on the back of slowing employment growth and further easing in labour market tightness.
China – China’s activity data for August (Monday) are expected to come in quite close to their July readings. Fixed investment growth is expected to remain particularly weak, partly a result from the campaign against excessive competition. We still expect annual GDP growth to slow in 2H-2025, after resilience shown in the first half of this year. On Friday, we expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 0.50% for now, in line with consensus and market pricing. We still expect the BoJ to continue its gradual rate hike path, with another 25bp hike pencilled in for Q4-2025.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
