ABN Amro hæfter sig ved, at ECB signalerer villighed til at stabilisere økonomien, og det tolkes som et skridt til mere finansiel stimuli, dvs. også med en rentesænkning senere på året.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
ECB View: President and Chief Economist highlight virus risks – Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane signalled that the coronavirus was giving the central bank reason to reassess the economic outlook and spectrum of risks. Ms. Lagarde said that ‘while the threat of a trade war between the United States and China appears to have receded, the coronavirus adds a new layer of uncertainty. So we’re continuing to monitor closely how these risks develop and how they feed into our central scenario for the economy’. She went on to say that ‘in the face of these uncertainties, the ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates and asset purchases acts as an effective automatic stabiliser’. Essentially, this refers to the idea that as the outlook dims or downside risks to the outlook build, markets start to price in more monetary stimulus, which leads to an easing of financial conditions. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a 10bp deposit rate cut this year compared to no change at the start of the year. Meanwhile, Mr Lane confirmed that the ECB was looking carefully at the spread of the coronavirus, which he said could have ‘significant short-term effects’. Although our sense is that the impact of the virus will be noticeable but transitory, it adds to the already weak economic growth and inflation picture in the eurozone (see also below). We continue to expect additional ECB monetary stimulus in the coming months.
