ABN Amro drister sig til at stille spørgsmålet, om renten nogen sinde bliver hævet i USA. Banken vurderer, at renten i hvert fald ikke stiger før i 2025 eller 2027, men der kan gå endnu længere tid, før den stiger – hvis nogen sinde. Det giver Kongressen bedre muligheder for at øge udgifterne og dermed stimulere økonomien. Udfaldet af valget bliver derfor afgørende.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro: 200911-US-Watch-Fed.pdf (268 KB)
US Watch – Will the Fed ever raise rates again?
- The Fed has made a much more significant change to its policy framework than might appear
- An average inflation target means rates are not likely to rise before 2025-2027 as a base case…
- …and if the Fed struggles, rates may stay low indefinitely
- We do not expect additional easing steps by the Fed to achieve the new goal, but rather a reliance on stronger forward guidance
- The new framework gives a green light to Congress to spend more vigorously in the coming years
- A key uncertainty is therefore how the political landscape evolves, and specifically, the outcome of the November election
