“Yesterday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced that a no-confidence vote will be held on September 8th. This comes in the wake of the ongoing political impasse, a phenomenon we have been highlighting for some time. The announcement follows the failure among political parties to agree on the 2026 budget, which targets EUR 44 billion in government spending cuts to restore fiscal balance. Political opposition forces have been vocal in rejecting the proposed measures, yet they have offered limited viable alternatives. Initially, a no-confidence vote was planned to be proposed on September 23rd by the far-left opposition leader. However, the Prime Minister decided to bring forward this pivotal moment, seeking a final opportunity to sway opinion in his favour by emphasizing the financial risks posed by France’s unsustainable debt trajectory. This manoeuvre is what we call ”un coup de poker” (a gamble), as a majority of opposition parties have already declared their intent to vote against the government. This makes it highly probable that the government will collapse on September 8th.’
Morten W. Langer
