En analyse fra Merrill viser, at afhængigheden af turismen har kostet dyrt under coronakrisen. De mest afhængige lande, bortset fra UK, har haft de store nedture i andet kvartal. Merrill’s graf over afhængigheden er samtidig et scoreboard over, hvordan landene har klaret krisen. Det eneste land, der har opnået en hurtig genrejsning (i V-form), er Kina, hvor væksten er kommet på før-corona-niveauet. Men Kina havde til gengæld det største dyk i 1. kvartal ved krisens start.

Uddrag fra Merrill:

Taking Stock of the Coronavirus Demand Shock

Second-quarter GDP results have now been released for most major countries around the world, with many economies posting record declines.

Last week, the U.S. posted a positively revised 9.1% month-over-month decline in the second quarter, amounting to an annualized rate of -31.7%.

The largest GDP decline came from the United Kingdom, with the country’s economic output dropping to levels last seen in 2003. The consumer services sector, which accounts for 80% of U.K. GDP, was especially
hard-hit, helping to explain the underperformance.

Meanwhile, China’s economy, which was affected by the coronavirus earliest, staged a sharp V-shape recovery in Q2, with GDP now above pre-crisis levels.

The latest data also confirms an underlying relationship between GDP declines and country exposure to travel and tourism industries. The data shows that countries more exposed to tourism suffered greater economic declines during Q2, with the exception of the U.K.

On average, tourism directly contributes 4.4% of GDP for Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations, but this varies widely among countries.

The U.S. economy is relatively less exposed to travel and tourism receipts, with tourism making up 2.9% of U.S. GDP. By contrast, many European economies are highly exposed to tourism consumption—with a large portion of their economies dedicated to activities such as accommodation, food and beverage, transport, travel services, and culture and recreational activities.

For example, in Spain, tourism represents 11.8% of GDP and 13.5% of total employment and, as a result, have been more severely affected by border closings, government shutdowns or social distancing measures.

Of course, there are other factors driving the economic outlook for these nations—the coronavirus severity and response, and fiscal and monetary
policies, to name a few—however, the composition of GDP toward tourism is an important factor in the equation.