Uddrag fra Zerohedge:
- Trump Praises Iran for Fully Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint; Crude Tanks, Yields Dump, Equity Futs Up
- Iran’s Aragchi says “Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open”
- US mulls cash-for-uranium deal as ‘three-page’ MOU peace plan takes shape
- Peace talks reportedly on Sunday in Islamabad
Odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of the ceasefire are soaring…
Trump Responds
Minutes after Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open”, President Trump responded on Truth Social:
“IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!”
Of course, we joke, but really…
Market impact so far:
- WTI dropped 9% to $86/bbl after Iran announced the Hormuz chokepoint opening during the ceasefire
- Brent retreated to $91 a barrel
- The dollar plunged while bonds surged, with 10-year yields falling to 4.23%
- European benchmark NatGas prices also fell sharply following the announcement
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased all gains since the Iran war began
- US main equity futures are green
Iran Opens Hormuz
In a rather shocking turn of events, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is open:
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.”
Oil crashed even lower on the report…
Are we getting close to ‘Mission Accomplished’?
US Mulls $20BN Cash-For-Uranium Deal
According to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.
The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground.The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.
Perhaps the most notable element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Axios adds that a top priority for the Trump admin is ensuring Iran can’t access the stockpile of nearly 2,000kg of enriched uranium buried in its underground nuclear facilities, in particular the 450kg enriched to 60% purity.
The Iranians, meanwhile, need money.
The parties are negotiating over what will happen to the stockpile and how much of Iran’s assets will be unfrozen. They are also discussing the terms on which Iran could use that money.
WTI Crude front-month oil futures prices are tumbling on the report, down over 11% – back near post-ceasefire lows…
President Trump said Thursday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely meet this weekend for a second round of talks to try to seal the deal
