Uddrag fra ME, Deutsche Bank, Socgen, Goldman og JP Morgan
| Median correction |
| The “correction” is now at a median level |
 Deutsche |
| Equities already down more than in certain actual recessions |
| The current peak-to-trough drawdown is already larger than in some past recessionary episodes. Chart shows S&P peak-to-trough drawdowns of >15% since 1950. Red bars indicate overlap with recessions. Let’s see if we avoid one, enter a mild one or actually end up hard landing in a depression. |
 Goldman |
| 7th bear heaven |
| Seven bear markets (>30% decline). |
 Soc Gen |
| S&P500 and EPS during recessions |
| Smallest EPS decline 3% Biggest EPS decline 45% |
 JPM |
| De-ration the fastest on record |
| Analysts not doing their job…? |
 SG cross-asset |
| EPS cuts by 17% would be normal |
| During normal business cycle recessions…EPS falls 17% from highs. Who has that in their forecast? |
 Mr Blonde Macro |
| SXXP EPS fell by an average of 29% during previous economic recessions |
| Peak to trough 12m fwd EPS, Brent price and EURUSD during EA recessions based on CEPR and US recessions based on NBER |
 Goldman |
| Drawdown yes. EPS cuts no |
| S&P500 is a bear market territory and this one stacks up pretty well vs “bear markets we remember”…but there are still no EPS cuts. Recession normally see 15% forward EPS contraction (chart 2). |
 Morgan Stanley |
 Morgan Stanley |
| When do EPS estimates usually start being revised down? |
| EPS starts being revised down when the economy enters a recession |
 Goldman |
| Bull and bear markets since the Great Depression |
| Bull markets seem a little longer no? |
 Stifel |
| Consumer sentiment and S&P500 returns |
| Post consumer sentiment troughs the 12m return is 25% (n=8) The chart looks like we should (better) trough soon… |
 JPM |
| 6-month realized vol now at a level rarely seen outside of major crises |
| Current SPX 6-month realized volatility is at a level rarely seen outside of major crises; current 6-month implied volatility has been exceeded in just 3 periods since 1940 |
 Goldman |
| Tightening – enough is enough? |
| Can we get a break? If this was the plan, then somebody must be happy. |
 Goldman |
| 2nd worst 60/40 ever |
| The worst year for a 60/40 portfolio since 2008. |
 Compound |
| Gone baby gone: 60% of GDP wiped out… |
| The equivalent of 60% of GDP has been wiped out from US bonds & equities markets alone in less than 8 months. It’s the biggest financial drawdown as a % of GDP ever experienced over the last 40 years. |
 BCA |
