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Aktiemarkedet har indregnet store fald i EPS-overskud, som endnu ikke er realiseret

Morten W. Langer

fredag 24. juni 2022 kl. 22:16

Uddrag fra ME, Deutsche Bank, Socgen, Goldman og JP Morgan

Median correction
The “correction” is now at a median level
Deutsche
Equities already down more than in certain actual recessions
The current peak-to-trough drawdown is already larger than in some past recessionary episodes. Chart shows S&P peak-to-trough drawdowns of >15% since 1950. Red bars indicate overlap with recessions. Let’s see if we avoid one, enter a mild one or actually end up hard landing in a depression.
Goldman
7th bear heaven
Seven bear markets (>30% decline).
Soc Gen
S&P500 and EPS during recessions
Smallest EPS decline 3%

Biggest EPS decline 45%

JPM
De-ration the fastest on record
Analysts not doing their job…?
SG cross-asset
EPS cuts by 17% would be normal
During normal business cycle recessions…EPS falls 17% from highs. Who has that in their forecast?
Mr Blonde Macro
SXXP EPS fell by an average of 29% during previous economic recessions
Peak to trough 12m fwd EPS, Brent price and EURUSD during EA recessions based on CEPR and US recessions based on NBER
Goldman
Drawdown yes. EPS cuts no
S&P500 is a bear market territory and this one stacks up pretty well vs “bear markets we remember”…but there are still no EPS cuts. Recession normally see 15% forward EPS contraction (chart 2).
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
When do EPS estimates usually start being revised down?
EPS starts being revised down when the economy enters a recession
Goldman
Bull and bear markets since the Great Depression
Bull markets seem a little longer no?
Stifel
Consumer sentiment and S&P500 returns
Post consumer sentiment troughs the 12m return is 25% (n=8)

The chart looks like we should (better) trough soon…

JPM
6-month realized vol now at a level rarely seen outside of major crises
Current SPX 6-month realized volatility is at a level rarely seen outside of major crises; current 6-month implied volatility has been exceeded in just 3 periods since 1940
Goldman
Tightening – enough is enough?
Can we get a break? If this was the plan, then somebody must be happy.
Goldman
2nd worst 60/40 ever
The worst year for a 60/40 portfolio since 2008.
Compound
Gone baby gone: 60% of GDP wiped out…
The equivalent of 60% of GDP has been wiped out from US bonds & equities markets alone in less than 8 months. It’s the biggest financial drawdown as a % of GDP ever experienced over the last 40 years.
BCA

 

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