Merrill vurderer, at markederne er blevet en jungle med nationalisme, anti-globalisering, økonomisk krig mellem USA og Kina og med uro i Mellemøsten, men alligevel vil USA tiltrække investorer. Det er dér, kurserne stiger mest. I junglen er den amerikanske Silverback gorilla stadig den dominerende.
Uddrag af Merrill:
The liberal international order of the past seven decades is fading. Deglobalization is
gaining traction. Global supply chains are fracturing, as is the global internet. The United
States and China, once strategic competitors, are now ironclad foes. The Middle East is a
boiling cauldron of strife and instability. Populism, nationalism and authoritarianism—this
triad is undermining the global post-WWII order that handsomely rewarded investors
with solid long-term investment returns.
All of the above, of course, is anathema to the capital markets. Investors prefer
open borders, free trade, unfettered capital flows, competition yet cooperation, and
multilateralism. They prefer, quite naturally, the world as it used to be, not as it is: an
unruly jungle that has caused a spike in geopolitical risks over the past few years, with
the U.S.-Iran confrontation just the latest example.
But that said, and acknowledging that yes, it’s a jungle out there, it’s important for
investors to realize where America stands amid the planet’s wild habitat. In the hierarchy
of the jungle, think of the United States as a silverback—or the older, stronger and
domineering economic beast of the planet, challenged by up-starts but still top gorilla.
Betting against the U.S. corporate sector has been a losing proposition for nearly a
decade. Distracted by divisive politics and a 24/7 negative news cycle, many
investors have been blinded to the underlying strengths and pillars of the U.S. economy.
Now they are fearful of a world without a leader, a planet without a hierarchy. The jungle.
While we are not oblivious to the multiple challenges in front of America—a crumbling
physical infrastructure, burdensome entitlement expenditures, the rising cost to service
America’s debt, an unwieldy healthcare system, anti-trade and immigration sentiment—
America’s multiple strengths give it ample opportunity/ammunition to address its
weaknesses. Stay long America—the economic silverback in a jungle of a world.
