Resume af teksten:
Centralbanker forsøger at balancere mellem økonomisk vækst og inflationsstyring. Inflationen viser tegn på forbedring, men energipriser og geopolitik udgør risici. Japan bevæger sig mod strammere pengepolitik med forventninger om renteforhøjelser senere på året. Stærkere økonomisk vækst har mindsket bekymringer om svaghed og holder fokus på inflation. I USA viser den nuværende Q2-regnskabssæson stærke resultater med 86% af S&P 500-selskaber, der overgår indtjeningens forventninger. Teknologiinvestorer kræver dog mere imponerende resultater. Tidlige signaler fra hyperscalers viser stærk efterspørgsel efter AI-infrastruktur. Investorer følger AI-udgifter nøje, med øget fokus på, om de vil føre til betydelig omsætningsvækst og langsigtede afkast.
Fra Julius Bär:
Central banks remain in focus
Central banks are navigating the tension between resilient economic growth and the gradual easing of inflation pressures. Indeed, this current environment highlights a challenge shared by many central banks: how to balance the need to preserve price stability while avoiding unnecessary restraint on economic activity. Although inflation trends have generally improved, policymakers remain mindful of potential risks from energy prices, geopolitical tensions and still-robust demand conditions.
Japan stands out as one of the few major economies still moving gradually toward tighter monetary policy. With domestic growth holding up and the yen remaining under depreciation pressure, the Bank of Japan has scope to continue normalising interest rates after years of exceptionally accommodative policy. While markets do not expect aggressive action in the near term, expectations for further rate increases later this year remain intact.
Overall, stronger growth dynamics have reduced concerns about economic weakness and reinforced central banks’ focus on inflation. As a result, interest rate expectations are likely to remain sensitive to incoming economic data, even as policymakers increasingly favour a measured and data-dependent approach.
Earnings are strong, but expectations are higher
Meanwhile, the Q2 reporting season is in full swing, and corporate America continues to deliver. With 27% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 86% have beaten earnings expectations, comfortably above the five- and ten-year averages of 78% and 76%.
Earnings growth looks very strong at first glance, rising to 37.9% year-on-year from 24.8% just a week ago. However, this figure is boosted by one-off factors. Excluding these, earnings growth stands at 25.9%, up from 23.3% at the start of July. While less dramatic, this remains a strong result and would mark a seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
Companies have also been giving encouraging updates. In July, more companies raised expectations than lowered them, and the usual cuts to forecasts for the second half of the year have not yet appeared.
However, strong results are no longer enough to impress investors. Companies that beat both earnings and sales expectations have seen a smaller share price boost than normal. This suggests investors are expecting more and setting a higher bar for success, particularly in the technology sector.
This week is the busiest period of the earnings season, with 177 S&P 500 companies due to report results. While earnings remain important, investors are paying close attention to AI spending plans and looking for signs that these large investments will generate strong returns.
Early signals from hyperscalers
Early results from the hyperscalers have reinforced the strength of the AI investment cycle. Strong cloud growth, rising AI usage and increasing demand for computing power all point to continued robust demand for AI infrastructure. Capacity constraints are also emerging, suggesting that demand continues to outpace supply.
At the same time, spending plans are moving higher, with expectations for further increases in AI-related capital expenditure over the coming years. While this is putting pressure on near-term cash flow, investors are increasingly focused on whether record levels of AI investment will translate into meaningful revenue growth, stronger cash generation and long-term returns.
With more hyperscalers due to report, markets will be watching closely for signs that elevated AI spending remains backed by real customer demand and monetisation opportunities.
What investors need to know
A major focus remains the ongoing AI buildout among the largest technology and cloud infrastructure providers. Early signals have been encouraging. Strong growth in cloud-related activity, expanding usage metrics and growing customer demand all point towards continued strength in AI infrastructure requirements. Demand appears increasingly tied to real enterprise adoption rather than purely speculative interest.
At the same time, spending requirements continue to rise, as AI capex remains the key debate. Investors increasingly want evidence that record levels of investment will translate into meaningful revenue growth, cash generation and long-term returns.
Overall, economic growth is providing support for corporate earnings, central banks are navigating differing domestic realities, and AI continues to drive a powerful investment cycle. The earnings picture remains healthy and continues to provide an important pillar of support for the equity market. Numbers are solid, but investors are still not fully convinced. This tells us something about expectations: good is no longer always good enough.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/daRqQ5pIR22_LDBQRBq8sQIc-Z4GEvQsOqjzKtQfJxQAXUivY9koTdaNcET_1IR8Hg
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