ABNamro: What will the US elections bring for the US dollar and gold prices? “The outcome of the US elections could have a large impact on the dollar and gold prices • If there is a Democratic Victory (partial or full) the impact on the dollar and gold prices would be limited • In case of a universal tariff under a Trump presidency, we would likely see a higher dollar and lower gold prices, while over the longer-term these moves would likely be reversed US (…) In this note we focus on what different possible outcomes mean for the US dollar based on the views of our macro economists who defined various scenarios for the election outcome and their implications for the US (see more here) and Europe (see more here). Dollar dynamics The US dollar has a dual character meaning it has a cyclical nature, while also being the ultimate safe haven currency. The dollar tends to rally when growth is strong and rising faster than inflation if real rates are positive and/or improving and an improving fiscal and current account balance is often also supportive. However, it times of extreme stress coupled with a liquidity crunch, the dollar switches to becoming a safe haven.”
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Ing: How the plastics industry can function without fossil fuels – and at what cost. “The plastics industry is adopting technologies for reducing fossil fuel use, but not without a cost. This article aims to provide corporate leaders with insights into the business case of hydrogen-based plastics, bio-based plastics and recycled plastic – all of which provide an opportunity to move away from fossil fuels. In this article: From decarbonisation to defossilisation of the plastic industry. The economic reality: Oil and gas-based plastics are the cheapest options. The challenge of making fossil-free plastics cost competitive. The complex topic of defining sustainable bio-based plastics. Clear guidelines are needed on how to account for avoided emissions from biomass. The paradox of fossil-free plastics. The current state of methanol production. The journey towards fossil-free plastics has only just begun.” Læs hele analysen her
ABNamro: The recovery needs more from consumers.
“Services continues to drive the recovery for the time being, helped by strong tourist inflows and, more recently, a host of summer cultural events. This is helping to offset weakness in manufacturing. Services inflation remains on the high side, but falling wage growth comes as a welcome relief. The slowing in negotiated wages gives the ECB the green light to restart rate cuts in September. Over the summer, major events influenced the eurozone’s economy: elections in France, budget talks in Germany, the Olympics, and football championships. Since our last monthly update in June incoming GDP data showed the eurozone economy continued its expansion in Q2 at a similar pace as in Q1 (+0.3 q/q). Periphery countries carried growth, benefitting from tourism and recovery fund investments while Germany contracted against expectations (-0.1 q/q).”
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Danske Bank: Danmark ser ud til at komme til at stå alene med CO2 skat på landbruget. ”However, against the backdrop of farmer protest, it appears highly uncertain that other EU countries will follow Denmark’s lead. EURAKTIV notes that the Danish situation of dedicating a large part of the landmass to intensive agriculture has dictated the Danish agreement, while other EU member states face different pressures in their respective agriculture sectors. More broadly, the scope for implementing an emission trading system (ETS) for agriculture at the EU level has been repeatedly discussed in Brussels and was recommended by the EU Climate Advisory Group as key to cutting agricultural emissions in the EU. However, it remains to be seen whether the new EU Parliament, which is expected to be less climate progressive than last one, will push to put agriculture emissions more firmly on the EU agenda. Until then, it could be that Denmark will lead the agriculture carbon tax field alone.”
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Morten W. Langer
