Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

ING: Europæisk industripriduktion falder markant tilbage i januar 2024: ”December saw a large jump in production, which wiped out a full year of declines. This was mainly due to Irish production figures, though, which are notorious for their volatility thanks to contract manufacturing and outsourcing. Other countries also saw a small uptick on average, however. January data confirms that this jump was a one-off, in line with other manufacturing indicators remaining downbeat. The reversal was entirely due to a 29% drop in production for Ireland after a 19% increase in December. Other countries were more of a mixed bag, with Germany and Spain showing modest growth of 0.6% and 0.9% on the month, while France saw production fall by 1%. The trend of declining production finally seemed to bottom somewhat in the fourth quarter, but January has poured cold water on those hopes. The January production number is in line with the declining trend seen up to October last year. In the short run, this means that industry is likely to contribute negatively to GDP growth in the first quarter unless February and March beat expectations significantly.” Læs hele analysen her

Korn Ferry: Merger Mania: The Only Way to Grow? “As leaders struggle to create organic growth, they are turning to an old strategy: buying it. Both public companies and private equity firms have returned to dealmaking in a big way to start the year, with major mergers or acquisitions taking place across industries, among them retail, pharmaceuticals, energy, and financial services. In total, deal activity in the US is up 130% through February, to $288 billion. With the exception of last year’s fourth quarter, it’s the most activity in the first two months of any quarter since the start of 2022. Worldwide M&A activity grew 56% through February to $453 billion. Racine sees the hot start to 2024 getting even hotter as the year goes on. “Volume is only going to ramp up from here.” Læs hele analysen her

Natixis: What’s It Take to Be an AI Winner? “While AI is a major focus of investors today, especially after Nvidia earnings beat market expectations, Aziz Hamzaogullari, Founder & CIO, Growth Equity Strategies, Loomis, Sayles & Co., cautions that it is critical to be very selective in the AI space. View video for his perspectives on: *Buying Nvidia when it was one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500®* Why people will underestimate the impact of AI and overestimate the number of winners in AI. *What the past major disruptions, such as the internet and mobile, have taught investors about market winners and losers.
*How AI is impacting every company in a major way, but only a few companies will dominate in this space.*Where the research and development spending of the top 1,000 companies in the US is going and why it matters to growth equity investors. Læs hele analysen her

Morgan Stanley: Dette driver fremgangen på aktiemarkederne: “If lower rates are not on the immediate horizon and earnings fundamentals may be at risk, what is driving the buoyant stock market? Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee sees two key factors:

Liquidity: Financial conditions have become looser than they were even before the Fed started raising rates in March 2022. Ample injections of cash into the financial system from banks, money markets and government stimulus programs have more than offset the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. Importantly, however, these sources of financial liquidity may finally be drying up, as excess savings cushions are nearing exhaustion.

Excitement about artificial intelligence: A recent report from Morgan Stanley Research showed that AI-driven productivity could add 30 basis points to next year’s net profit margins for S&P 500 companies. There’s particular opportunity for efficiency gains among services-oriented sectors and industries, such as software and services, consumer services and financial services. That said, we think these potential gains may already be priced in to stocks’ valuations, with current consensus estimates of $277 per share for S&P 500 earnings next year, an increase of 26% from current levels. On top of that, margins may come under pressure even as productivity improves, as a stronger U.S. dollar, higher costs from interest rates and input inflation could end up offsetting such gains.” Læs hele analysen her

Morten W. Langer