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Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

Morten W. Langer

fredag 14. juni 2024 kl. 11:30

Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

Rabobank: European elections: Forging ahead or a spanner in the works? ”Summary: *The upcoming European Parliament elections will serve as a pivotal test of the far right’s influence on the European political landscape. *It appears another centrist coalition can be formed, but the far right may still shape the dynamics of parliamentary operations and the allocation of EU top jobs. *The European People’s Party will have a key position. This will necessitate trade-offs and, if unattainable, poses the risk of policy stasis on matters where the council is eager to advocate for radical changes. *The new parliament will learn there’s a thin line between increasing an economy’s resilience and adopting an unbalanced package of measures. The upcoming European Parliament elections, scheduled for June 6-9, 2024, are expected to carry significant implications for the future of the European Union. This significance primarily arises from the increasing prominence of right-wing parties across Europe, as evidenced by their recent electoral victories and influence in national politics.”

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Unicredits Erik F. Nielsen: It’s been a pretty good week for us believers in liberal democracy and the need for European integration. ”Three events come to mind: First, in the US, former President Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush money criminal trial in New York. Sentencing – which could be anything from a slap on the wrist to prison time – will be handed down on July 11, just days before the Republican Party’s convention will formally nominate him as its candidate for president. That I should live to see the party of Eisenhower, Reagan and Bush, the party of supposedly conservative values, nominate a convicted felon as their candidate for president blows my mind. It also blows my mind to see several prominent Wall Street titans endorse Trump, for this can no longer be a question of just policy preferences but must be about basic values and trust in the system and its institutions that once made America great, so to speak. Yet, Trump’s conviction must, at some level, sow doubt among good, traditionally republican voters in the swing states, and hence reduce the risk of him being elected.”

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ING: US electric car transition awaits the next wave.

“In the US, the uptake of electric cars has slowed while hybrids have gained ground. Battery EV prices resumed a downward trend, but remain high for the middle class. Meanwhile, charging concerns linger and production has been temporised. Policy support will be essential for next-level EV adoption, but upcoming elections could bring drastic changes. The US now lags behind China and Europe in electric vehicle adoption – and unlocking the second wave of adoption within the middle class will be essential if it wants to catch up any time soon. In this article: US EV sales share in 2024: still going higher but at a slower pace. New EV prices have resumed downward trend, but face headwindsImpor-
tance of policy support continues for EV uptake. But a new wave of EV adoption requires buy-in from the middle class. EV charging infrastructure needs an extra push. Stronger consumer bet on the intermediate HEVs and PHEVs. Hybrids have a wide and increasing range which applies to customersUps and downs of the second hand EV market.” Læs hele analysen her

Deutsche Bank: The EUR 500 bn power grid question: ”The expansion of renewable energies and the stronger electrification of industrial processes, the heating market, and the mobility sector need to go hand in hand with an enlargement of the electricity grids. The necessary investment in electricity grids is expected to be at least EUR 500 bn by 2045. This corresponds to at least EUR 24 bn per year (starting from 2025). For comparison: total investment in transmission and distribution networks stood at EUR 9.7 bn in 2022. The planned investment for 2023 (official numbers not yet published) was referred to at EUR 11.5 bn. This would be a new record high. Investment in networks has already increased over recent years and was 36% higher in 2022 than in 2015. Still, investment in nominal terms would need to double compared to the 2023 plan figures and would need to be maintained at this level in real terms to reach the minimum required level.”

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Morten W. Langer

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