USA oplever en ekstrem stigning i corona-tilfældene, og test og forsyninger kan slet ikke følge med, skriver Nordea i en omfattende analyse af coronakrisen. Antallet af døde stiger mere i Danmark end i resten af Norden, og Norge tester mere aggressivt end Danmark.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Huge spike of cases in the US, but new testing strategy behind
We bring you our daily Corona update with statistics from across the globe. The US saw a massive spike in Corona cases, but it is mostly a result of a new testing strategy. Holland is starting to look worrisome on fatality data as well.
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The amount of US daily cases has spiked massively with almost 10.000 new cases just yesterday, but we were prewarned of such a development by the White House late last week. Testing capabilities have been increased and more tests have been
Italy had a new surge in new cases on Saturday with more than 6,500 new cases and almost 800 fatalities. Sunday looked a little better with just above 5,500 cases and 650 fatalities.
Chart of the day: A massive spike in US cases, but still a small number judged by the population size
We continue to watch the developments in Tom-Tom GPS data from major cities as a live-gauge of the activity. Congestion data is below averages no matter where you look, but maybe most markedly US stands out alongside Rome and Madrid. 7 states have entered a lock-down in the US, why further lock-downs could be on the cards on the coming week. Germany implemented new social-distancing rules yesterday (meet maximum 2 persons!). Sweden currently allows gatherings of up to 499 persons, which looks odd in an international comparison.
Table of the day: Tom-Tom congestion data at the latest rush hour versus 2019 averages
The Corona virus is sadly still spreading exponentially globally with almost 340,000 confirmed cases and close to 15,000 fatal outcomes. We are yet to see any conciliatory containment signals in the West.
Chart 1: The corona virus is spreading exponentially and fatalities is following with a time-lag
We have highlighted how Spain looked to be on worse path than Italy over the past week. Spain’s curve is almost double of Italy’s with a time-lag. Let’s hope that Spain’s containment measures start to work this week, otherwise it could prove to be a very sad development that they will face over the next 7-10 days. Holland is another country that could be faced with a worse curve than Italy unless containment measures start to work.
Chart 2: Spain and now also Holland may be on a worse path than Italy
It is still early days in Scandinavian corona data, but so far Denmark (the tightest) and Sweden (probably the easiest) are following each other on the number of fatal cases per million (just above 2 cases per million). In 2 weeks’ time, we will know whether Denmark overreacted or Sweden was too laissez-faire. So far it is hard to see any difference in data.
Chart 3: Fatalities per million citizens in the Nordics
Norway tests more than Sweden and Denmark (per million citizens), which is probably why Norway is the front-runner in the amount of Corona-cases in Scandinavia. We cannot use these numbers for any analysis, since Denmark is e.g. currently running low on tests in one part of the country (why testing is almost halted).
Chart 4: Confirmed cases Scandinavia – wide differences in strategy. Norway is testing more aggressively
You find the total global overview below. The amount of serious/critical cases are yet to develop in a way that will compromise the health care capacity in Scandinavian countries, but it is too early conclude that the development is under control. Critical cases are still increasing rapidly in Italy and Spain.
