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Finans

Arbejdsløsheden drøner afsted i USA og Europa

Hugo Gaarden

fredag 03. april 2020 kl. 15:00

Intet steds er arbejdsløsheden på grund af coronakrisen steget så meget som i USA med ti millioner de seneste par uger, men også i Europa er ledigheden steget kraftigt, omend flere finansielle nødhjælpspakker tager sigte på at betale ansatte for at blive på jobbet i nedlukkede virksomheder.

Uddrag fra ABN Amro:

Global Daily – Surging unemployment in the US and Europe

Euro Macro: Blow to the labour market is taking shape – Recent data from Spain and Germany give some early indications about the magnitude of the blow to the labour market from the economic lockdowns aimed at preventing the spreading of the Corona virus. To begin with, Germany’s Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs reported that the number of requests for ‘Kurzarbeit’ (the government-subsidised scheme that allows companies to temporary reduce the number of working hours of employees), jumped to 470,000 in March, up from 1,900 in February. This number of requests is equal to around 1% of Germany’s labour force. To compare, at the peak of the GFC around 1.4million applications for Kurzarbeit had been made, which was equal to around 3% of the labour force at that time. The majority of the requests in March came from companies in the trade and the hotel and restaurant sectors. In addition, the head of Germany’s Employment Agency said that he expected a rise in the number of unemployed of around 150,000 to 200,000 in April, which is equal to around 0.4% of the labour force. Meanwhile, Spain’s Ministry for Labour and Social Security reported a rise in the number of jobless claims by 302,000 in March (equal to around 1.3% of the labour force) and a drop in job creation by almost 834,000 during that month (equal to more than 4% of total employment), with the tourism and construction sectors hit the hardest. According to the ministry, the monthly rise in jobless claims was about 1.5 times higher than the largest monthly rise during the GFC. The current lockdown measures in Spain and Germany will remain in place at least until 12 April and 19 April, respectively, implying that the deterioration in the labour market will continue that month.

US Macro: Another stunning rise in jobless claims – what does it mean for unemployment? The pace of the rise in the unemployed continues to confound expectations, and as we indicated after last week’s rise, it suggests the fiscal measures intended to support employment – generous though they are – are coming too late to prevent widespread layoffs. The 6.6mn rise in new jobless claims comes on top of a 3.3mn rise last week, and even if we assume no further rise in claims, this would already imply the current total unemployed is around 16mn, meaning an unemployment rate of around 10% – up from just 3.5% in the February reading, and equal to the prior peak of unemployment in the last recession. As we discussed last week, it is likely that a significant portion of these newly unemployed will be classified in the nonfarm payrolls data as temporary layoffs rather than permanent (we will get a clear read on this in the April report, due on 8 May). This would mean that many (but not all) of these could be rapidly brought back to work once restrictions on economic activity are removed. This is our base case, even if unemployment is likely to be higher than it was previously. However, the longer restrictions remain in place, the more likely that many business models are no longer viable – and that significant numbers of temporary layoffs become permanent.

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