Coronakrisen ændrer eksportmønstrene dramatisk, konkluderer Deutsche Bank i en rapport, og det får betydning for virksomhedernes fremtid – og for investorerne. Asien klarer sig bedre gennem krisen end Europa og USA, så derfor kan virksomheder med stor eksport til Asien måske klare sig bedre. Analysen omfatter den tyske eksport, men den peger på generelle tendenser for eksportvirksomheder.

Uddrag fra Deutsche Bank:

2020 Bilateral exports: The great
variation

All German export markets will be hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. However,
we foresee great variation among key countries. Many markets that were
already facing headwinds before the COVID-19 crisis – for instance, the UK
and Italy – seem to have experienced a more a severe health crisis than
others.

Hence, we expect annual exports to both countries to decline by
around 25% in 2020. Similarly, large contractions in German exports are
also expected for France, Spain and the euro area as a whole.

By contrast, exports to Asia may emerge relatively unscathed from the
COVID-19 crisis. China, Japan and South Korea managed the crisis fairly
well, and exports to these countries contracted only slightly in the first
quarter.

For these countries the relatively stable Asian demand might be
less of a trade barrier than the shutdown of production facilities in Europe
and the US. As these facilities increase their production capacity over the
course of the year, annual exports to Asian countries may contract only
marginally in 2020.

Exports to the US are widely expected to shrink by around 10% in 2020.
However, we consider this assessment highly uncertain. First, exports
remained relatively stable in the first quarter. But the epidemiological crisis
hit the country in late March and given the collapse of the US labor market,
Q2 exports are set to nosedive.

Second, in the US the corona crisis has not
peaked yet, and the planned reopening of the economy might be riskier in
the US than in other countries with flatter epi curves. Hence, the risk of a
new wave of infections and new lockdown measures could be higher in the
US than elsewhere.

Rays of hope after heavy contraction in German exports

Strong COVID-19 headwinds led to a sharp slowdown in German industry and a
collapse in global trade. In the second quarter German exports in year-on-year
terms may contract more strongly than during the GFC in 2009, at least for some
export markets. The anticipated GDP contraction of -9% in 2020 is clearly a negative
record.

But despite the deepest economic slump in over 70 years, there is a silver
lining for exports. First, the recent reopening of major industrial plants in Germany.
Second, the less restrictive lockdown measures in parts of northern Europe. And
third, the low number of newly infected people in Asia provides the basis for a
recovery of global value chains and global trade.

Asia: Exports to key countries might contract only slightly

Industrial heavyweights China, South Korea and Japan seem to have managed the
crisis relatively well. So far, production indices have declined only mildly in these
countries. In Korea, manufacturing production already recorded a marked
improvement of 4.6% month on month in March. As a consequence German
nominal exports to Asia – which account for one-sixth of total goods exports – were
almost flat in the first quarter.

Thus, the relatively stable demand in Asia could be less of a barrier than the collapse in production, at least in some sectors. As a result, the picture is expected to change in the second quarter due to the indirect effects of the lockdown in Europe and the US.

However, economic activity in both regions is already gaining momentum. If the recovery continues and German production plants gradually increase their capacity utilization, exports to Asia could emerge relatively unscathed. So nominal exports to Asia, which grew by more than 3% p.a. from 2016 to 2019, could well contract only marginally in 2020.

Europe: Exports to some countries could drop by up to 25%

By contrast, it is almost certain that we will see a historical reduction in exports, at
least to some European countries. In total they account for 68% of total goods
exports. Exports to both the non-euro area (31% of total goods exports) and euroarea countries (37%) were already weak before the lockdown in March.

Americas: Exports to the US with extraordinary uncertainty

In our base scenario, we expect the US market to be less affected than many
European countries. Exports to the US only marginally contracted until March in
year-on-year terms. Yet, the epidemiological crisis does not seem to have reached
its peak in the US. Moreover, the collapse of the labor market will leave its marks.
We expect that the unemployment rate will peak above 15% in the second quarter
and remain above 10% towards the end of 2020. We expect GDP contraction of
~7%.

However, the US forecast is extremely uncertain as the future development of the corona
crisis seems particularly vulnerable to a backlash. Some US states plan to reopen
their economies despite still-precarious public health conditions. This raises the
risk of further outbreaks requiring renewed further containment measures. It is an
important downside risk for German exports.