Resume af teksten:
Næste uge vil Kina og Indonesien annoncere rentebeslutninger. Indonesien forventes at hæve renten med 25 basispunkter onsdag. Taiwans eksportordrer fortsætter med at vise stærk vækst, selvom de modereres en smule. Kinas økonomiske data, herunder industriproduktion og detailsalg, forventes at vise blandede resultater mandag. Japans kommende data vil belyse energikriseens økonomiske virkninger med en forventet stigning i inflation til 1,8% i april. Sydkoreas økonomi vises stærk, men forbrugerfølsomhed overfor inflation kan forværres, samtidig med, at halvledereksporten fortsat understøtter økonomien. Andre vigtige data inkluderer handelsdata fra Taiwan og Sydkorea samt japansk BNP.
Fra ING:
China and Indonesia will announce rate decisions. Key data releases include trade figures from Taiwan and South Korea, and Japanese GDP
Asia Research highlights of the week
Inflationary pressures mount in South Korea and Japan, raising rate hike odds China reflation momentum strengthens in April, likely keeping the PBOC on hold Taiwan’s exports see a rare miss in April
Indonesia: BI expected to hike rates by 25bps
Much has changed since Bank Indonesia’s last monetary policy meeting, when BI left rates unchanged and refrained from signalling a more hawkish stance. Since then, the IDR has depreciated by over 1.5%, despite active BI intervention in FX markets to contain currency pressures. At the same time, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted amid resilient US macro data, further widening rate differentials unfavourably for the IDR. Given BI’s continued emphasis on currency stability, we expect the central bank to pivot toward tightening and deliver a 25 bp rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting
China: Economic releases to have mixed results
China’s key data dump is scheduled for release on Monday. We expect a mixed bag for domestic activity data, with industrial production and retail sales edging up to 5.8% and 1.8% year-on-year, respectively. Fixed-asset investment could slow further to 1.6% YoY, year-to-date. Industrial activity has been supported by strong external demand, but the rest of China’s domestic demand indicators have been quite lacklustre. The 70‑city property price data will also be released on Monday. We’ll be watching closely for any further signs that prices are bottoming out. A trough has yet to be confirmed, but generally, we’ve seen the price declines slow this year. On Wednesday, we expect loan prime rates to remain unchanged. We recently pushed back our People’s Bank of China rate cut call to 4Q26 amid increased reflation momentum and stronger-than-expected 1Q26 GDP.
Taiwan: Tech exports to continue pushing growth
Taiwan releases its export orders data. We expect orders to moderate to 54.3% YoY, which remains a very strong reading. Export orders opened the year quite strongly, suggesting that Taiwan’s external demand-driven growth is set to continue. Higher-tech product prices have been a major tailwind, even though they have also boosted import costs.
Japan: Middle East conflict poses bigger risk to inflation than GDP
Japan’s upcoming data releases will reveal the economic impact of energy disruptions. Energy effects may have a limited impact on growth but a greater impact on inflation.
We believe the economy continued to grow at a similar rate as the previous quarter. We expect GDP to rise 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted. The war’s impact on GDP should be minimal in 1Q26. Exports should turn positive as shipments to the US and China improve, while domestic consumption and investment should continue to expand, supporting overall growth. We believe that the energy shock will have a limited effect on Japan’s April trade data. Japan is expected to benefit from AI-driven growth, although energy-related challenges may constrain overall expansion. Imports also should continue to rise, partly driven by higher energy import prices. Meanwhile, the impact of war should be more prominent on inflation than on trade. Higher energy costs are expected to increase overall inflation. The impact, though, will likely be still less significant than that observed in other Asian and developed countries. Energy subsidies and the waiving of social welfare service fees should help keep inflation in check. Inflation is expected to rise to 1.8% year-on-year in April, up from 1.5% in March.
South Korea: Divergence between trade and consumer health
South Korea’s economy remains resilient, though underlying imbalances are becoming more pronounced. Clearly, the semiconductor supercycle is supporting the overall economy, but energy headwinds threaten consumers’ everyday lives and other manufacturing industries. This is especially true in petrochemicals and oil refining. Upcoming data should display these uneven developments in Korea. We expect consumer sentiment to deteriorate further in April, as consumers are more vulnerable to inflation hikes. At the same time, May’s 20-day trade data is expected to highlight once again how strong semiconductor exports are helping to offset the impact of energy disruptions.
Key events in Asia next week
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