Resume af teksten:
Kina indleder de vigtige “Two Sessions” møder den 4. marts, hvor vækstmål for 2026 vil blive annonceret, inklusive et muligt nedjusteret BNP-vækstmål til “over 4,5%”. Der forventes også at blive præsenteret finansielle mål og eventuelle nye stimulanseforanstaltninger. Den 15. femårsplan vil blive godkendt, hvilket vil forme Kinas udvikling de kommende år. Samtidig ventes Kinas PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren at falde til 49,1 i februar. I Sydkorea forventes en stærk stigning i eksporten i februar grundet høj efterspørgsel på halvledere, trods en negativ effekt fra Lunar New Year. Drivkraften bag industriel vækst er høj global chipefterspørgsel, og inflationen forventes at stige til 2,2% på årsbasis.
Fra ING:
China’s Two Sessions meetings, when growth targets will be announced, begin on 4 March. Key data releases include China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and South Korean inflation and exports
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China: All eyes on the Two Sessions
The long-awaited Two Sessions kicks off in Beijing on 4 March. We’ll get China’s key economic targets for 2026, most notably for GDP growth. We believe there’s a chance the growth target will be lowered to “above 4.5%” from “around 5.0%” over the past few years. China will also unveil fiscal targets, including for the deficit-to-GDP ratio and bond issuance. Markets will watch closely for any new stimulus directions outlined in the readout. The finalised 15 th Five-Year Plan will be approved at the meeting, setting the stage for the next five years of China’s development.
We’ll get China’s February manufacturing purchasing managers’ index. We expect the official manufacturing PMI to moderate to 49.1.
South Korea: Exports expected to grow amid strong semiconductor demand
South Korea’s exports should continue to record strong gains in February. Despite unfavourable calendar effects due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, exports are expected to rise 25% year-on-year in February. Data on 20-day exports showed that semiconductors jumped 134%. As DRAM/HBM prices continue to rise, value term exports will increase substantially for an extended period. Meanwhile, auto exports are likely to decline, with Lunar New Year expected to have a more negative impact. Industrial production and retail sales in January are expected to show mild gains, driven by robust global chip demand and the local equity rally. Meanwhile, consumer inflation is expected to rise to 2.2% year-on-year in February. Gasoline prices rose, and additional price hikes are expected amid holiday demand.
Key events in Asia next week
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