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Finans

Asien viser, at åbning af økonomien skal gennemkontrolleres

Hugo Gaarden

tirsdag 14. april 2020 kl. 11:00

ING har gennemgået de asiatiske lockdowns og mangel på samme, og det giver en lektion for Europa, når landene overvejer en åbning af økonomien: Test, tracking og isolation er det helt afgørende. Halve løsninger dur ikke. De viste lockdowns. 

Uddrag fra ING:

Lockdowns – do them or don’t do them, just don’t half do them

The experience with lockdowns may explain some of the difference in the experience of Asian countries.

Mainland China is the benchmark for aggressive lockdowns, quickly shutting down Wuhan and some other cities in Hubei province, and then doing the same in some cities in Guangdong, Zheijang and elsewhere as the disease spread. Restrictions are only just being relaxed now. So far, any second wave is confined to imported cases, but it is early days and China is worth watching closely again. It is too soon to say ‘mission accomplished’ in China

Korea, on the other hand, never really went into lockdown, even in the Southern city of Daegu, where the outbreak centred on a cult ‘church’. They and their contacts were tested, and, where necessary, placed in quarantine. A stay-home recommendation was issued for the city, but it was not mandatory, even though it was largely adhered to. So Korea is at almost the opposite end of the spectrum to China in terms of lockdown policy. Instead, through massive testing, tracing and isolation, they managed to get their peak infections down quickly. There is still a small but persistent tail of new cases each day in Korea but it is not big enough to derail the health service or the economy, and testing continues.

Japan and Singapore both adopted measures that initially emulated the Korean approach, but with far less testing in either. This worked well in the early stages but both have now adopted more stringent social distancing measures. Singapore’s could probably be described as a lockdown comparable to those in most European countries, while Japan’s is still quite half-hearted.

What our casual investigation reveals is if you do a lockdown, and take the economic hit from doing so (and it is a substantial hit) then there is no point going in half-hearted

Most other countries in the region have adopted lockdowns of varying intensities, and at differing speeds with respect to their own outbreaks. Some remain regional and unconvincing (Indonesia), others a bit late to be imposed (Malaysia) whilst Philippines, Australia, New Zealand seem to have been implemented rapidly and with an appropriate degree of severity. India’s lockdown has had the side-effect of leading to a mass exodus to the countryside, which may unintentionally spread the virus further.

We summarise some of these measures in the table below. What our casual investigation of these differing approaches seems to reveal is, if you do a lockdown, and take the economic hit from doing so (and it is a substantial hit) then there is no point going in half-hearted.

There is an alternative, test, trace, and isolate – but you have to do mass testing. Otherwise, you are really only chasing the disease, and that is a race countries do not seem able to win against this virus.

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