Mandag morgen steg de asiatiske aktier, og det skyldes overraskende gode data fra Kina. Detailhandelen og industriproduktionen steg i oktober meget mere end forventet. I USA har 75 pct. af virksomhederne aflagt bedre regnskaber end forventet, men forventningerne til fjerde kvartal peger på en flad udvikling. Det har fået renterne på markedet til at stige.
Asia shares firm as upbeat China data bucks the bears
Asian shares crept higher on Monday as Chinese economic data surprised on the high side, challenging assumptions the giant economy was locked into in a downturn although falling mainland house prices remained a nagging worry.
Annual growth in retail sales and industrial output both handily beat forecasts, with the bounce in consumption a positive given pandemic restrictions.
On a negative note for the stressed housing market, new home prices in China fell 0.2% month-on-month in October, the biggest decline since February 2015.
Economists at CBA argued there was a chance the People’s Bank of China would cut bank reserve requirements (RRR) this week to support activity.
“We estimate a 50 basis point cut to the RRR can release CNY 1 billion of liquidity,” they said in a note “In our view, mild easing measures can help meet funding requirements for property developers and offset downside risks to the economy.”
Chinese blue chips were a fraction lower after the data, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%.
Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5% as data showing economic activity shrank by more than expected in the third quarter only reinforced the case for aggressive fiscal stimulus.
S&P 500 futures firmed 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures were both were off 0.1%.
Analysts at BofA noted 75% of U.S. companies had beaten earnings estimates in the latest reporting season but forecasts for the fourth quarter were only flat, breaking more than a year of rising expectations.
The grim survey helped Treasuries steady a little, but yields were still up a hefty 11 basis points for the week as the market priced in a greater risk of an early tightening by the Federal Reserve.
BofA economist Ethan Harris suspects the market still has not priced in enough given the high starting level of inflation means rates need to rise more to reach neutral.
“If inflation stays high and comes in above the planned overshoot, the Fed will need to become much more hawkish and either accept a market correction or deliberately induce such a correction,” warns Harris.
Higher U.S. yields have combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar, which boasted its best week in almost three months. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was firm at 95.017 and just off its highest since July 2020.
