Den australske økonomi voksede kraftigere end ventet i tredje kvartal og rystede corona-recessionen af sig. Forbruget steg kraftigt, fordi Australien har haft rimelig held med at bekæmpe coronaen, herunder med lockdown i foråret. Nu er grænserne åbnet mellem delstaterne, men ikke de internationale grænser. Væksten i tredje kvartal var på 3,3 pct. i forhold til andet kvartal. Men en fuldstændig genopretning vil tage lang tid, siger økonomer. Den samlede økonomi er stadig 4 pct. lavere end før coronaen. Australien har håndteret coronakrisen langt bedre end Europa og USA.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Australia’s Economy Emerges From Recession on Spending Surge
Australia’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, shrugging off the pandemic-led recession that pummeled the country in the first half of the year, with a huge jump in consumer spending greasing the wheels of the recovery.
The resource-rich economy grew 3.3% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, a sharp reversal from the 7.0% plunge in the second quarter, and well above economists’ expectations of growth closer to 2.5%.
The bounce in growth technically pushes the economy out of recession, but economists warn of a long road ahead to get the economy back to where it was prior to the pandemic.
“The job is not done,” said Craig James, chief economist at CommSec. “The economy is still around 4% smaller than a year ago.”
Supported by a massive expansion in government stimulus and interest rates cuts in response to the pandemic, household consumptions jumped 7.9% over the quarter, the highest increase in 60 years, a partial recovery from the unprecedented 12.5% fall in the second quarter.
The consumer spending binge led the household saving ratio fall to 18.9% from 22.1% over the quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Spending on retail items rose 8.7%, while motor vehicle sales jumped 15.4%.
While the growth report suggests a recovery is now well underway, the outlook remains challenging and unemployment is still well above pre-pandemic levels.
Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Philip Lowe told parliament earlier Wednesday that the central bank is weighing a variety of scenarios for the economic outlook and remained open-minded about further monetary stimulus, particularly in regard to extending its $100 billion Australian dollar (US$73.71 billion) quantitative easing program at some point in 2021.
Solid GDP growth “cannot hide the reality that the recovery will be uneven and bumpy and that it will be drawn out,” Mr. Lowe said.
“Some parts of the economy are doing quite well, but others are in considerable difficulty…it will not be until the end of 2021 that we again reach the level of output recorded at the end of 2019,” he said.
Business investment remains a cloud over the economy, falling 4.1% over the quarter, reflecting the fact that it is awash in spare capacity.
Australia has had success in containing Covid-19 since it forced nationwide lockdowns of businesses and individual movement in March, while prices for key exports like iron ore have also been strong thanks in part to demand from China.
State borders are being reopened ahead of the Christmas holiday, increasing mobility around the country. There is still uncertainty about reopening of international borders, something that is needed to bolster big export industries like tourism and the education of foreign students.
The recent reopening of Victoria, the country’s second-biggest state, after a second wave of infection should help fuel the economy again through the fourth quarter, economists said.
