Resume af teksten:
Inflationen i eurozonen steg til 2,2% i september, primært på grund af energipåvirkninger, der forventes at aftage snart. Det forventes, at inflationen vil ligge lidt under ECB’s mål på 2% i de kommende måneder. Energipriserne falder igen, og euroens styrke bidrager til lavere importpriser. Lønvækst forventes at aftage yderligere og vil sandsynligvis dæmpe inflationspresset inden 2026, men uden stor effekt på kerneinflationen lige nu. Kerneinflationen forbliver stabil, med små ændringer i prisforventninger fra virksomheder. ECB forventes derfor at fastholde renteniveauet i deres kommende beslutninger.
Fra ING:
The pickup in inflation to 2.2% in September was mainly due to energy effects, which will fade in the months ahead. A small undershooting of the inflation target actually seems realistic around the turn of the year. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady for now
We expect inflation to slightly undershoot the ECB’s 2% target in the months ahead
No, the eurozone’s inflation story isn’t changing much at the moment. Headline inflation ticked up mainly on energy base effects as energy inflation increased from -2% to -0.4% in September. This will likely fade again in the coming months, which means that this small flare-up of inflation can largely be ignored.
In fact, we expect inflation to slightly undershoot the European Central Bank’s target of 2% in the months ahead. Energy prices have been falling again, and euro strength adds to lower import prices at the moment. Besides that, wage growth is expected to moderate further in the coming quarters. The latter will likely mute inflationary pressures in 2026, but is not set to have a big impact on core inflation as of yet.
The core inflation outlook for the coming months remains very steady. Businesses in manufacturing and services don’t show large moves in selling price expectations. Core inflation was stable at 2.3% in September, and it seems reasonable to expect this measure to decline very slowly in the coming quarters. All of that makes it easy for the ECB to decide on rates later this month: steady as she goes.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
