Uddrag fra Zerohedge/MArket Ear:
Positioning in MCG & Tech is now well below the extremes of 2 months ago.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Semis positioning: Cleaner
Semis positioning: Selling across regions drives positioning lower.
Source: JPM PI
Do NOT pick a fight with this chart
This is the ratio of the Mag 7 vs the 493.
Source: Tony P
Beats
The five $1+ trillion market cap companies that have reported Q1 earnings so far posted sales of more than $412 billion combined during the quarter. All five beat both EPS and sales estimates.
Source: Bespoke
Tech themes during earnings seasons
1. Public cloud trends are accelerating (& it feels durable)
2. Capex figures are very large ($150-200bn among the big 5)
3. Cap returns are accelerating (GOOGL $70bn buyback + Divy .. AAPL $110 bn buyback)
4. EPS revisions are flattening out in places (.. putting more pressure on multiples)
5. A.I. conviction remains very high (though market seemingly gravitating toward ‘fast twitch’ paybacks like Cloud tailwinds)
(GS TMT specialist sales)
If Big Four were a country
The combined revenue of the Big 4 US tech companies hit a record $1.53 trillion over last 12 months…That’s larger than the GDP of all but 15 countries.
Source: Compound
Megacap Tech capex
Megacap Tech capex spending over the years. Total capex among these 4 (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META) is expected to nearly double from $100bn in ’22 to ~$200bn in ’25.
Source: GS
AMZN starts to stand-out as the potential ‘catch-up’ candidate
When you zoom out to pre-COVID levels, AMZN starts to stand-out as the potential ‘catch-up’ candidate. Performance is since Jan 2020.
Source: Bloomberg
Tech catalysts
A robust catalyst path for the Big 6 from here ..
1. AAPL : Apple “Let Loose” event on May 7
(iPad Pro and iPad Air expected to debut.)
2. GOOGL: Google I/O on May 14
3. MSFT: Microsoft to hold a special Windows and Surface AI event on May 20 (“AI vision across hardware and software”)
4. GOOGL: Google Marketing Live on May 21st
5. NVDA earnings May 22nd
6. MSFT: Microsoft Build May 21-23
7. AMZN AWS re: Inforce June10-12
8. AAPL WWDC June 10-14
