Resume af teksten:
Den amerikanske centralbank, Fed, har besluttet at holde renten stabil mellem 3,5% og 3,75% ved mødet i slutningen af januar, på grund af solid økonomisk vækst og aftagende bekymringer om beskæftigelsen. Man forventer, at denne rentepolitik vil forblive uændret gennem 2026. Modsat vedtog Bank of Japan at hæve renterne, mens Bank of England fortsætter sin gradvise lempelse. To medlemmer af Fed stemte for en nedsættelse, men blev nedstemt, da de økonomiske indikatorer som BNP og inflation ikke signalerer behov for ændringer. Jerome Powells fremtid i Fed er uklar, men hans nuværende mandat udløber i 2026.
Fra BNP Paribas:
The FOMC decided to keep interest rates steady at 3.5% – 3.75% at its 27–28 January meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts at the end of 2025. Solid economic growth and easing concerns about employment prompted this decision, and we now expect the Fed Funds target range to remain stable throughout 2026, with no interference from the question of Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement. As such, the Fed would join the ECB in maintaining the status quo. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England would continue to be exceptions: the former by raising rates and the latter by continuing its gradual easing.
A widely expected rate decision
The outcome of the FOMC’s first meeting of 2026 was no surprise, with a 98% market probability that the target range would remain at 3.5% – 3.75%. Two governors, Christopher Waller and Stephan Miran, dissented and voted in favour of a 25bp cut. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had mentioned that monetary policy was ‘well positioned’, and the GDP, employment and inflation data released since then did not suggest that further action would be needed.
BNP Paribas scenario: rebalancing completed
US growth remains dynamic, as it is expected to reach +2.9% in 2026 which would mark the fourth consecutive year of above-potential growth.
The FOMC statement removed the reference to a recent rise in ‘downside risks to employment’, while the rate cuts at the end of 2025 have not yet taken effect. Furthermore, while Jerome Powell does not expect second-round effects from tariffs on price levels.
Heads down in the data
However, Powell defended the Fed’s independence.
Central banks: the Japanese exception
Bank of England has not concluded its easing cycle. By contrast, the Bank of Japan is moving towards accelerating the ‘ adjustment of the degree of accommodation ’ of its monetary policy.
[1] Monthly average between January and November
[2] Jerome Powell’s mandate as Chair of the Fed ends in May 2026, but his mandate as a member of the Board of Governors runs until January. Under unwritten tradition, chairs leave all of their positions within the central bank when finishing up as chair, but there is no certainty over what Jerome Powell will do.
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