BNP Paribas: Vi står over for et nyt bull-market

BNP Paribas mener, vi står over for et nyt bull-market, men banken pointerer også, at investorerne kan have betænkeligheder på grund af den voldsomme økonomiske nedtur i år. Investorerne er tilbageholdende med at kaste nye penge ind i aktiemarkedet. Det, der trods alt kan drive markedet opad, er de store ofentlige stimuli, der ventes at få en positiv virkning de næste 12 måneder.

Uddrag fra BNP Paribas: View Document

EQUITY OUTLOOK Q4 2020: That ’90s show

  • Are we seeing a repeat of the 1990s-2000 tech bull market? The parallels to “That ‘90s Show” seem immediately obvious, given the scale of the recent outperformance of technology and Web 2.0-centric stocks. However, we would argue that this is a poor reason for turning cautious on equity exposure at present.
  • Monetary and fiscal stimuli the key drivers for equity markets:  With the money supply growth set to extend into 2021, we expect equities to enjoy a favourable tailwind into 2021 in spite of investors’ economic and political misgivings.
  • Fiscal stimulus is also having a significant economic effect, with Japan spending 21% of GDP on fiscal stimulus, followed by the US at over 13% (so far this year), and with France recently announcing a EUR100bn fiscal stimulus package.
  • This should support a global economic, and thus earnings, recovery over the next 12 months, given the usual lag from such stimulus spending.  These two forces, together with attendant real rates in increasingly negative territory, will be the most potent macro drivers of equity markets globally to the end of this year, in our view.
  • Fund flows biased to bonds, not equities: Despite the strong performance of equities since March and the record-low yields now offered by bond markets, investors seem reluctant to increase their exposure to equity markets this year.
View Document
Læs også:  Langers: Mens markedet siver: Tid til comeback for BigTech?

Skriv en kommentar

Please enter your comment!
Indtast dit navn her