These are anxious times for millions of people across the world, and testing times for governments, institutions and businesses. The economic and market outlook remains highly uncertain, depending on the evolution of Covid-19, government containment and stimulus measures, and society’s response. In this edition of the Global Outlook, we have tried to keep some sense of normalcy and provide our quarterly update of the economic outlook, even though the current environment is anything but normal as we face unprecedented events and risks, as well as dislocated markets.

One thing looks certain: the global economy faces a recession. The crisis will also have political ramifications. The onus is now on governments to implement significant fiscal and other measures to support the health system, corporates and workers.  At some point (not yet), we expect, buying opportunities will arise and the economy will recover. How long will this take? No-one knows – probably months.

This edition of the Global Outlook presents our assumptions regarding control measures and policy responses and concludes that conditions should allow for a swift economic recovery once the shock fades. We doubt, however, that this recovery will be as immediate and steep as we and many others initially assumed.

The situation remains extremely fluid, and we will strive to keep providing updated views and analysis as events unfold. We hope that our insights can help in these difficult times.

Meanwhile, we wish you the best of health for the coming months.