En bedre økonomisk udvikling i USA vil føre til en lidt højere Fed-rente, op mod 2,25 pct. i løbet af i år, mener BNP Paris.
Uddrag fra BNP Paribas:
Higher yields with better growth, higher inflation and
Fed easing
Recovering economic growth following the Fed’s
monetary stimulus and higher inflation should allow 10y UST yields to
rise to 2.25% by the end of the year, in our view.
Range bound: Central banks have reduced the range
of potential rate outcomes with little Fed appetite for
tightening (or even easing here) and negative interest
rates (and QE) in Europe and Japan.
Structural factors limit the scope of a rates sell-off
including lower trend growth, subdued inflation
pressure, demographics and demand for duration.
Key rates views for 2020:
1. Higher 10y US yields
2. Steeper 2s10s US yield curve
3. Lower 30y TIPS breakevens
4. Low rates volatility with tight range for US rates
5. Wider swap spreads with Fed’s liquidity easing
Risks in 2020:
Coronavirus: Spread of the virus and its economic
impact remain highly uncertain.
Politics: Impeachment proceedings continue. A
unified government at 2020 election could result in
increased market volatility.
Geopolitical events: Increased Middle East tensions
or deteriorating US/China or US/eurozone trade
relations.
