Uddrag fra BNPparibas:
The latter would suffer from the inflationary effects of Trumponomics and the resulting more restrictive monetary policy, with the Fed’s expected status quo on rates throughout 2025. In the euro area, the expected strengthening of growth would remain limited and constrained, but the return of inflation to the 2% target would be secured, allowing the ECB to continue its rate cuts.
2025 would thus be marked by the beginning of convergence of growth rates between the United States and the euro area, but by divergent inflation trajectories and a decoupling of monetary policies. Next year should also be different from 2024 by a likely rise in unemployment rates. The possibility of a European revival and the potential introduction of bolder measures to address the region’s structural challenges are among the upside risks.
