“After a long decline of real long-term interest rates in advanced economies, the direction has changed in recent years. The prospect of rising private- and public-sector financing needs is raising concern that this movement is not over. Empirical research shows that the long-run dynamics of long-term interest rates are predominantly driven by economic growth, demographic factors (life expectancy and working-age population growth) and financing needs (public debt and pensions). The first two factors are expected to continue exerting downward pressure, whereas upward pressure should come from the huge financing needs. Empirical estimates of the relationship between long-term interest rates and expected borrowing requirements point towards an impact that should be rather limited, all in all.”
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Morten W. Langer
