BNPparibas: Readiness 2030: one year after its announcement, the European rearmament plan is on track

“Following the announcement on 4 March 2025 of a joint plan to invest EUR 800 billion in defence within the European Union (EU) by 2030, Member States have been gearing up for action. One year on, the initial assessment is fairly positive. Promises are being kept and, according to our estimates, EU countries spent nearly EUR 400 billion in 2025, slightly more than expected. Germany, the countries of Northern Europe and those that spent the least (including Spain) have agreed to a significant increase in spending. They are therefore aligning with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that had already implemented this effort (in particular Poland and the Baltic states). Investment represents a growing share of expenditure and R&D is increasing rapidly. Spillover effects are emerging in European industry, contributing to the rebound in its production. Member States and the European Union have adopted instruments, which were virtually non-existent before, to facilitate the additional increase in investment in 2026. Military spending is projected to reach 2.5% of European GDP (+0.6 pp more in two years) and exceed the 2% of GDP threshold in over three-quarters of Member States.” Læs hele analysen her.