AI-boomet har fået en ny risikomåler: kreditmarkedet begynder for alvor at prise gældsrisikoen hos techgiganterne – og handlen med CDS eksploderer.
Goldman Sachs peger på, at investorernes fokus på AI er rykket fra aktiekurser og vækstforventninger til virksomhedernes balancer og finansieringsbehov. Spændet på AI-relaterede virksomhedsobligationer er udvidet med omkring 25 basispoint, mod blot 6 basispoint for ikke-AI-relateret kredit. Banken forventer, at risikopræmien vil bestå, fordi de enorme AI-investeringer kræver mange års kapitalrejsning og højere gældsfinansiering.
Det mest opsigtsvækkende sker imidlertid på markedet for credit default swaps (CDS). Handelsaktiviteten i AI-relaterede CDS’er er vokset markant i takt med investeringerne i datacentre, chips og anden AI-infrastruktur. Instrumenterne bruges både til direkte spekulation i kreditrisiko, til relative-value-handler mod obligationer og af aktieinvestorer som hedge på børsnoterede og private AI-porteføljer.
Særligt chipproducenterne skiller sig ud. Den rullende månedsomsætning i CDS på Nvidia, AMD og Broadcom er steget omkring ti gange, efter at selskaberne har signaleret villighed til at yde sælgerfinansiering og garantier til kunderne. Samtidig er aktiviteten i SpaceX-CDS vokset hurtigt efter selskabets første obligationsudstedelse.
Konklusionen er, at kreditmarkedet nu sender et signal, som aktiemarkedets AI-eufori let kan overdøve: De gigantiske investeringer har en finansiel pris. Jo mere techselskaberne selv finansierer AI-økosystemet gennem gæld, garantier og kredit til kunder, desto vigtigere bliver kreditrisikoen – og dermed CDS-markedet – som temperaturmåler for AI-boomet. Figuren på side 4 illustrerer udviklingen tydeligt: CDS-volumen i chipsektoren er steget dramatisk mere end blandt hyperscalerne.
Uddrag fra Goldman og Zerohedge:
Market participants had expected a GOOGL deal to come to the market for some time, and it did late last week, although it was so large ($25BN+) spreads promptly blew out even more immediately after.
The 30y bond priced with a 15-20bp new issue concession (+115) and closed the week 7bps tighter from pricing (+108). On the week, the GS AI basket outperformed closing -2.8bps tighter compared to our GS IG100 broad based basket which finished -1.8bps tighter.
As Goldman’s credit strategist Amanda Lynam wrote in the bank’s latest Global Credit Trader note regarding the relationship between AI credit and the rest of the market, pointing out that spreads for AI-related bonds have widened by 25bp in contrast to only 6bp in non-AI credit through Wednesday’s close…
… and writing that she expects “this gap will persist, keeping AI-related spreads wider vs. non-AI peers, given the anticipation for long-term funding needs and a multi-year capex buildout. Locally, some pause in AI-related issuance combined with some funding for larger non-AI corporate deals could tighten this differential. But we would fade that move: our base case for the macro backdrop implies a healthy premium across the AI vs. non-AI divide over the longer term.”
More notably, the dislocation in risk premium between AI-related credit and non-AI peers is also prevalent in the credit derivatives market.
As the next chart shows, volumes have grown materially in AI CDS in tandem with AI capex increases. As Goldman IG trader Miles McCarthy writes, a diverse set of clients are engaged in trading CDS in many different formats: “some are trading in an outright capacity to express levered/unfunded credit views, others are trading CDS against bonds to take advantage of relative value dislocations, and we have seen engagement from equity focused accounts using CDS to hedge both public and private AI linked equity portfolios”.
AI CDS – Steady volume growth over the last year and a large increase in recent weeks
McCarthy also says that the bank’s clients have been notably dynamic in their ability to trade new instruments across AI CDS as narratives change within the space. Before the SPCX bond deal, SPCX CDS had never traded before. Since the inaugural credit offering however, there has been a rapid ramp in trading activity in the CDS. The same can be seen in the volume growth around semiconductor and chip maker CDS. Rolling one month trading volumes are up 10x in NVDA, AMD and AVGO sparked by recent announcements that these companies are willing to provide various forms of seller financing and guarantees for their buyers.
SPCX CDS Volume has grown 23-28% WoW for the last two weeks
Significant Semi/Chip CDS volume growth over the last two months (Hyperscaler CDS = ORCL, META, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, SPCX; Chip CDS = AVGO, AMD, NVDA)
And while the near-term trajectory of hyperscaler CDS remains a mystery, one thing is almost certain: the best paying job on Wall Street in 2027 will be that of CDS traders.
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