Merrill mener, at de nye corona-vacciner kan skabe helt nye økonomiske vilkår. De kan få større virkning end alle hjælpepakker fra regeringer og centralbanker. De kan føre til bedre økonomi for skatteyderne og bringe os ud af lavinflationen og nulrenterne. Vaccinerne vil fremme den digitale økonomi, men samtidig vil high-tech selskaberne blive kigget grundigt efter i sømmene, for der kan ventes en større forskel på dem – på deres aktiekurser. Der vil komme en omrokering af “arbejde-hjemme” og “arbejde-ude” selskaberne.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Impact of a Healthcare Solution to COVID-19
On 9 November, pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced better-than-expected vaccine results, with “90% or more” efficacy in blocking COVID-19 transmission, according to the company. Expectations from epidemiologists were centered around 70% efficacy.
Citi analysts see the vaccine news as a first major advance toward a post COVID-19 world economy.
Pfizer’s vaccine higher-than-expected efficacy rate suggests a more rapid movement toward global immunity from COVID-19, with vaccine production and distribution being the constraint.
A healthcare solution to COVID-19 could have great potential to restore economic activity to its full potential, and lift deeply-depressed “socially-close” industries, more than any fiscal spending package or central bank lending program.
In the process, it could generate savings for taxpayers and marginally reduce the inflationary impact of easy monetary policy, and could make extreme macro stimulus steps less necessary.
While parts of the world economy already saw a sharp recovery from the record drop of the initial COVID-19 shock, a much broader, self-reinforcing period of economic growth could follow COVID-19’s departure.
This may not happen immediately on a vaccine’s announcement, but could depend on the effectiveness of the vaccine, supporting health remedies and others to come. But ahead of this economic benefit, Citi analysts think markets could stop treating COVID-19 as a permanent impediment to humanity.
A rotation from “stay at home” to “leave home” equities could begin.
While digitization remains one of Citi’s long-term “unstoppable trends”, there could be more scrutiny about the sustainability of revenue and market share growth for many tech companies and more differentiation in their stock performance.
A normalizing economy could push market valuations for many industries back in their pre COVID-19 direction.