I 85 år har value-investeringer haft en tendens til at slå markedet, men i den seneste tid har de fået et efterslæb. Citi prøver at omdefinere value-investering, der traditionelt defineres som aktier med en lav markedsværdi i forhold til den bogførte værdi. I den nye definition lægger Citi vægt på selskaber, der giver en høj dividende, der kan sikre en god indtjening trods moderat vækst, som ikke er særligt følsomme ved rentestigninger, og som befinder sig i sektorer, der er billige i forhold til dem, der har klaret sig godt under corona-krisen.
A Redefinition of Value Investing
What is value investing?
Until recent years, value investing, or investing in stocks with a low market price relative to accounting book value, had a nearly 85 year history of outperformance. However, given the realities of today’s economic environment, Citi analysts believe there may be new factors that can identify where “value” is for certain companies and consider four strategies:
- Dividend growth companies – ability to pay and grow dividends.
- Growth at a reasonable price (“GARP”) – identifying likely earnings growth though margin expansion, and not overpaying for it.
- Companies less sensitive to rising interest rates – these tend to be less sensitive to interest rate shocks given higher near-term earnings and cash flow yields.
- Economically sensitive sectors and regions that are cheap relative to COVID-19 winners – Europe and parts of EM are historically cheap relative to US and may also benefit from a weakening USD.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
Identifying the new value
Looking beyond COVID-19, Citi analysts also see potential from certain sectors and regions that have underperformed so far this year. As US companies consider diversifying supply chains out of China amid continued tensions between the world’s two largest economies, countries in southeast Asia and Latin America could see a boost in foreign investment.
Reshoring back to the US and government-driven infrastructure spending may benefit certain small-and mid-sized manufacturing companies in the US.
Banks may be able to reduce the level of loan loss provisions sooner-than-expected and if governments remain supportive through 2020, banks may be well-positioned to move on from this crisis much stronger than following the Great Financial Crisis.
