Citi ser temmelig positivt på aktiemarkederne, men de kommer til at udvikle sig fundamentalt anderledes end sidste år. Citi har en overvægt på Europa, Japan og det udviklende Asien samt globale small and mid-cap aktier. Det afgørende er det, Citi kalder den ustoppelige tendens, hvor der vil være konstant vækst: Asien, en voksende ældrebefolkning, digital disruption samt New Energy – altså ikke bare grøn energi.
An Improving Base Case
- Positive vaccine trial results have boosted Citi analysts’ expectations of a likely end to the global pandemic in the second half of 2021. The massive performance dispersion between many “COVID-19 cyclicals” and “COVID-19 defensives” in 2020 leaves room for substantial performance rotation in 2021.
- Overweight global equities: Europe, Japan, emerging Asia and Latin America are preferred. Within the US, Citi analysts are neutral on large caps and prefer small and mid-caps. Global small and mid-cap equities (SMID) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are also favored.
- For the coming year, “COVID-19 cyclicals” such as financials and industrials appear attractive as the eventual departure from COVID-19 could see a potential recovery and rotation trade and as central banks continue to still maintain their accommodative stance.
- Over the longer-term, Citi analysts are in favor of “unstoppable trends” such as The Rise of Asia, Increasing longevity and Digital Disruption. A new addition to the unstoppable trends is New Energy, with Citi analysts expecting renewed urgency on climate change and environmental standards.