I en analyse over inflationens virkning på økonomien og investorerne bringer Citi en graf, der viser, at fintech-selskabernes markedsværdi har overgået værdien af alle mindre amerikanske banker i Russell-2000 indekset, men i de seneste måneder er kursværdien dog faldet. Det er den stigende inflation, der har påvirket en række fintech selskaber og andre vækstselskaber negativt. Citi tror dog ikke, at fintech-selskaberne på sigt vil blive ramt af den stigende inflation, snarere tværtimod, fordi mange fintech-selskaber bidrager til at sænke omkostningerne. Men der er stadig lang vej, før fintech kan true de store bankers markedsværdi, som opgjort i S&P-500 for de amerikanske banker, omend de nærmede sig halvdelen af de store bankers værdi, da pandemien var værst.
Portfolio Impacts and Opportunities of Inflation
Recent inflationary concerns and bond price responses have negatively impacted a variety of secular growth industries such as Fintech, Greentech, Medtech and Cyber-security. Citi analysts do not believe these long-term growth opportunities could be significantly derailed by the levels of inflation expected in the future.
In particular, investments in Fintech are timely and anti-inflationary. Just how radical is the ongoing shift to Fintech? The total market cap of the largest US payments focused fintech companies has now exceeded the entire Russell 2000 bank index.
In many aspects, the US economy is in great shape; yet that is not what most Americans think. 74% say it is a good time to find a quality job, but 68% think the economy is getting worse. Their economic concerns can be attributed to one issue: inflation.
For a consumer, inflation is a tangible, visceral problem. Robert J. Shiller suggested that inflation causes people to lose confidence in their ability to “keep up” and to lose faith in their policymaker’s ability to help them.
Ironically, the good decisions by governments during the pandemic are the very reason for the economic health of most Americans and, in part, are the cause of this temporary burst of severe inflation.
In the past, large spikes in inflation have ended economic expansions. Looking ahead, Citi analysts see solid gains in overall US employment, even as the balance sheets of households are improving. Citi analysts believe incomes may stay ahead of temporary price shocks. In short, Citi analysts continue to believe the recovery in US business and employment may outlast and outrun the inflation spike.
Citi analysts expect to see upward price pressures for the remaining of 2021, though the rate of inflation may likely decline from recent levels. Not only did Citi analysts overweight Treasury Inflation Protected Securities coming into 2021, but also doubled overweight in March. However, negative real yields and weakening fuel for future inflation are gradually beginning to diminish the appeal of inflation-linked bonds.
Though short-term inflationary pressures may abate, Citi analysts believe elements of long-term inflation are gradually accelerating. In October, core services prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, the highest reading since 2008. This could be a warning to bond holders, as long-term US interest rates are 2 full percentage points lower than they were a decade ago. Citi analysts expect inflation in the coming 10 years likely to be 0.7% higher than the interest on the 10-year as of December 2019.
