”Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024 was less surprising to European households and businesses than in 2016, yet they take the threats more seriously, as evidenced by the knee-jerk impact on economic confidence (Figure 9). The first interventions of the president-elect in the new year have highlighted both new and old risks to the global order, including his recent threat to annex the Danish autonomous territory Greenland. Trump 2.0 risks accelerating the fragmentation of the global rules-based trading and security system, posing major challenges for Europe.: Trade Policy: To the extent that European exporters face increased tariffs from the United States, they will likely absorb part of the tariffs in their margins, so the hit to export volumes may be small initially. In fact, frontloading of exports before tariffs could also boost European trade in H1 2025, although EU exports such as bespoke machinery are less easy to keep on inventory than Asian consumer goods. If tariffs materialize, Germany and Italy to a lesser extent are likely to endure the most headwinds, with somewhat smaller effects for France and Spain (Figure 10). The potential economic effects from Trump trade policies would likely also include some trade diversion from China. Chinese exporters—faced with even larger US tariffs— might compete for EU demand to offset the loss of US demand.”
Læs resten af analysen her, se side 12
Morten W. Langer
