Citi vurderer, at selv om pandemien ikke er overstået, så vil den ikke slå så hårdt igenem som hidtil, og den vil ikke føre til en ny økonomisk nedtur. Hverken økonomien eller markederne har toppet. Vi befinder os i en midtvejscyklus, hvor alt får et lidt mere normalt forløb med moderate vækstrater og en faldende inflation i forhold til den nuværende. Citi tror, at aktierne generelt kan stige med 7-9 pct., mens obligationer ikke vil give et positivt afkast. Citi anbefaler investering i kvalitetsaktier i sektorer med stærk vækst, og som giver en pæn dividende.
Sustaining Returns in a New Market Environment
Recent developments suggest that the pandemic would persist well into 2022. The hope that 8 billion vaccinations and widespread population exposure to the Delta variant would be sufficient to subdue COVID-19 turned out to be false when Omicron struck. Nevertheless, Citi analysts are convinced that the global economic recovery that is underway may endure and ultimately outlast the pandemic. In short, Citi analysts believe that the world economy and equity markets have not peaked and have the potential to grow.
At the same time, the investment environment is changing. The pandemic-era economic collapse and rebound may not be repeated. Neither will the emergency monetary and fiscal easing steps. We are entering a new phase of the recovery, or “mid-cycle”. Citi analysts believe that the middle part of this recovery portends a normalization of the economy, where the demand relationship between goods and services stabilizes, supply chain and labour issues abate, and central bank policies move away from crisis management.
Citi analysts expect:
- Global GDP growth may slow but remain solid.
- COVID-19 impacts may abate via more exposure, vaccines and effective treatments.
- US inflation may retreat to 3% by end-2022 and trend at 2.5% in the coming decade.
- Interest rates may remain low or negative, with US cash yields averaging 1.6% less than inflation over the coming decade.
- For 2022, expect public market equities to potentially provide a total return of 7%-9% with global fixed income returns of -1%-0%.
- Expect the US dollar to rise modestly against major trading partners.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
Given these views, Citi’s ideas for 2022 include:
- Emphasising less cyclical, higher quality assets in sectors with sustained growth, shift from lower quality assets that have rebounded sharply from COVID-19 impact.
- Identifying stronger quality companies with leading positions in secular growth industries.
- Overweight dividend growth strategies.
- Lean towards equities over fixed income, as accepting negative real returns from many bonds seems a poor choice.
- Exploit volatility for income and to invest in industries at lower entry points.
- Build larger alternative investment positions for suitable investors.
While the effect of negative real interest rates may appear mild, cash may be a bigger drag on portfolio returns now than in many prior decades. Investors may want to shift to asset classes that have the potential to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth. Citi analysts believe that global equities may produce positive real returns after inflation.
