Citi ser positivt på investeringsmulighederne i Europa og UK i 2021. Banken venter, at finansieringsstriden i EU og forhandlingerne om Brexit lykkes, og det vil give et løft for investorerne. De cykliske aktier vil stige i takt med, at coronakrisen forsvinder, og EU-fondens kraftige satsning på grønne investeringer vil gavne den grønne industri. Det vil gavne virksomheder i både Kontinentaleuropa og i UK. Desuden venter Citi, at der vil komme et forholdsvis stort opsving i de mindre og mellemstore europæiske virksomheder. Citi venter, at de virksomheder, der kan sikre fortsat fremgang i dividende-betalingerne og samtidig klare store investeringer i en ekspansion vil blive vinderne under den kommende optur.
Uddrag fra Citi:
Why are Europe and UK Poised for a Better 2021?
Catalysts for the long-term economic and market recovery
The EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund is a game-changer and likely to get final ratification by year-end within the EU’s wider budgetary process. There has been great solidary in this process, paving the way for €390bn grants to the weaker periphery countries in 2021.
Green energy is the new growth driver – the Recovery Fund could raise 30% of the debt needed through Green bonds, and the spending of the loans and grant money could have a significant focus on Green initiatives.
With Biden’s Green Energy priority, the US may work with Europe and UK in developing the agenda for next year’s global climate change forum.
Citi analysts expect a “bare-bones” EU-UK trade deal to be agreed on ahead of the UK’s departure from EU on 31 December 2020. The symbolism could be hugely positive, leading to further negotiations and likely sub-agreements.
Where are the opportunities?
“COVID-19 cyclicals” are recovering after prolonged underperformance – these make up 55% and 58% of European and UK market capitalization respectively. With an expected broadening of global growth momentum, this could add upgrades to European cyclical earnings.
European small and mid-cap equities also tend to perform well at the early stage of the economic recovery.
With additional impetus from the EU Green Deal and the EU Recovery Fund, outperformance within the clean energy space could be driven by powerful earnings drivers as well as re-rating possibilities from strong multi-year growth outlooks.
Companies that are able to sustain dividend growth and continue to fund business expansions are likely to emerge from this crisis stronger.
