Kina kan få sin laveste vækstrate i moderne tid, også på grund af styrets indgreb den seneste tid. Det kan føre til en vækstrate på under 4 pct., og det vil uvægerligt påvirke andre regioner. Citi har derfor reduceret sin globale aktieovervægt med nedskæringer i Asien og Europa – delvist også i USA. Men alligevel har Citi en overvægt på kinesiske aktier, omend mindre end tidligere. Det kan synes modstridende, men Citi venter en stigning i væksten igen i 2022, mens andre lande får faldende vækstrater. Desuden venter Citi, at Kina stimulerer politikken, mens der vil ske stramninger andre steder.
Modest Overweight in China
China’s deliberate “multi-policy” tightening could yield its slowest growth rate in modern history aside from the initial COVID-19 shock. However, some temporary elements of the Chinese slowdown – such as energy supply constraints – may see relief.
China’s slowdown to sub-4% growth near-term could spill over to other regions. As a result, Citi analysts have reduced our global equity overweights, with cuts to Asia, Europe and some scaling back in the US.
Nevertheless, Citi analysts have retained our modest equity overweight in China. This may sound odd since China is one of the key sources of potential cyclical weakness in the coming couple of quarters. The reason Citi analysts are staying positive on China is that its growth might be rising in 2022, while others slow. And its policy might be easing in 2022, while others tighten.
