Vilkårene for investorerne skifter efter coronakrisen, forudser Citibank. Der er nogle “trends, der ikke kan stoppes”, og som bliver forstærket. Det er f.eks., at den digitale disruption vil tiltage, så dette samt sundhedssektoren giver nye investeringsmuligheder. Det samme gælder for Asien som helhed. Men også små og mellemstore virksomheder kan få et løft. Derimod ryger Latinamerika ned ad investorlisten. Citibank forudser, at Europa får sværere end USA ved at skubbe økonomien igang.
Investing for a New Economic Cycle
Investment Strategy
- In a post-pandemic asset allocation, Citi analysts reiterate their conviction in “Unstoppable trends”. These include Digital disruption – such as digital media content, e-commerce, and cybersecurity providers; and Increasing human longevity – global healthcare.
- Asia, as a whole, also remains an “Unstoppable trend” driven by accelerating demographics and the changing geopolitical environment.
- While Citi analysts are positive on these long-term themes, they are also tactically favoring beaten-down sectors in the near-term. Among the underperforming “COVID-19 cyclicals”, Citi analysts see higher probability that US small- and medium (SMID) sized firms may experience a quicker and more decisive rebound.
- Meanwhile, valuations in Latin America – 2020’s worst regional performer to date – appear to have suffered a much deeper de-rating than other EM regions, and could present opportunities.
- Global economic recovery may be uneven across regions
- There are initial signs of reawakening of the US economy after the COVID-19 driven shutdowns. In April, US unemployment rate jumped by 10.3%, but in May it fell by 1.4% to 13.3%, the fastest decline in more than 70 years. Other data such as auto sales (up 45% to a still low level in May) also suggests April marked a bottom for the economy, even as some activities, such as air travel remain dramatically lower than pre COVID-19 levels.
- The Eurozone lagged the US during the recovery after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. With a greater trade and tourism shock and less fiscal stimulus, Citi analysts expect 2020 Eurozone GDP growth to contract by 7%, more than twice as large as that in the US where a 3.3% decline is expected.
- Along with greater demographic constraints and more slower-growing industries, an inadequate level of regional support for the most COVID-19 impacted Eurozone countries is likely to result in a weaker regional recovery for several years to come.
- Citi analysts also see oil-producing states as likely to experience sustained pressure. While expected production cuts and a modest resumption of travel may boost oil’s price toward US$40 by year-end, oil is unlikely to regain pre-pandemic levels due to a long-term secular shift away from fossil fuel consumption, increased US supplies, and a technology revolution in alternative energy.
